基于反向传播算法的崇阳溪流域洪水流量预报
发布时间：2019-04-04 18:12
【摘要】：基于反向传播算法原理,采用试错法确定BP模型的隐含层节点数,并加入动量项,选取崇阳溪流域建阳水文站洪水流量过程及其上游武夷山水文站、支流麻沙水文站相应洪水流量过程资料,同时考虑建阳站前期流量的自回归影响,建立建阳站最速下降动量反向传播洪水流量预报模型。计算结果表明,模型预测精度符合要求,可以作为流域预测洪水的方法之一,为流域防汛会商和指挥调度提供依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the principle of back propagation algorithm, the number of hidden layer nodes in the BP model is determined by trial and error method, and the momentum term is added to select the flood discharge process of Jianyang Hydrological Station in Chongyang River Basin and the Wuyishan Hydrological Station upstream. At the same time, considering the autoregressive effect of the pre-flow in Jianyang station, the forecast model of the flood discharge forecast with the fastest descending momentum and backpropagation in the Jianyang station is established, according to the corresponding flood discharge process data of the tributary Ma Sha hydrologic station. The calculation results show that the prediction accuracy of the model accords with the requirement and can be used as one of the methods of flood prediction in the basin, which can provide the basis for the flood control consultation and command and operation of the basin.
【作者单位】： 福州大学土木工程学院;云南省水文水资源局;
【基金】：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2016J01734) 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金面上项目(2015490311)
【分类号】：P338
本文编号：2454048
[Abstract]:Based on the principle of back propagation algorithm, the number of hidden layer nodes in the BP model is determined by trial and error method, and the momentum term is added to select the flood discharge process of Jianyang Hydrological Station in Chongyang River Basin and the Wuyishan Hydrological Station upstream. At the same time, considering the autoregressive effect of the pre-flow in Jianyang station, the forecast model of the flood discharge forecast with the fastest descending momentum and backpropagation in the Jianyang station is established, according to the corresponding flood discharge process data of the tributary Ma Sha hydrologic station. The calculation results show that the prediction accuracy of the model accords with the requirement and can be used as one of the methods of flood prediction in the basin, which can provide the basis for the flood control consultation and command and operation of the basin.
【作者单位】： 福州大学土木工程学院;云南省水文水资源局;
【基金】：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2016J01734) 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金面上项目(2015490311)
【分类号】：P338
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