沙颍河代表站径流演变特征及归因分析
发布时间：2019-04-13 16:35
【摘要】：径流演变特征研究可为在变化环境下制定流域水资源规划、建立流域水文响应机制提供科学依据。以沙颍河流域代表水文站阜阳站为例,运用M-K检验法和小波分析法分析了1956年-2011年径流变化特征,并从气候变化及人类活动的角度分析了径流变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:沙颍河阜阳站径流总体呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不明显,总体未达到95%显著性水平;在1966年前后存在明显的突变点;径流存在13a、26a两类周期变化特性,周期演变过程受人类活动影响显著。就驱动因素而言,人类活动对径流变化的贡献率在65%以上,气候变化对径流变化的影响较弱,表现为从负向到正向的趋势。
[Abstract]:The study on the characteristics of runoff evolution can provide a scientific basis for making water resources planning and establishing hydrological response mechanism in the basin under the changing environment. Taking Fuyang station, a typical hydrological station in Shaying River Basin, as an example, the characteristics of runoff change from 1956 to 2011 were analyzed by using the method of M\ + K test and wavelet analysis, and the main driving factors of runoff change were analyzed from the point of view of climate change and human activities. The results show that the runoff in Fuyang station of Shaying River shows a general downward trend, but the decreasing trend is not obvious, the overall level is not 95% significant, and there is an obvious mutation point before and after 1966. There are two kinds of periodic variation characteristics of runoff in the past 13 years and 26 years, and the periodic evolution process is influenced by human activities significantly. As far as driving factors are concerned, the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is more than 65%, and the influence of climate change on runoff change is weak, showing a trend from negative to positive.
【作者单位】： 郑州大学水利与环境学院;郑州大学水科学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51279183;51509222) 郑州大学重大科技项目培育基金(2015ZDPY01)~~
【分类号】：P333
，
本文编号：2457750
[Abstract]:The study on the characteristics of runoff evolution can provide a scientific basis for making water resources planning and establishing hydrological response mechanism in the basin under the changing environment. Taking Fuyang station, a typical hydrological station in Shaying River Basin, as an example, the characteristics of runoff change from 1956 to 2011 were analyzed by using the method of M\ + K test and wavelet analysis, and the main driving factors of runoff change were analyzed from the point of view of climate change and human activities. The results show that the runoff in Fuyang station of Shaying River shows a general downward trend, but the decreasing trend is not obvious, the overall level is not 95% significant, and there is an obvious mutation point before and after 1966. There are two kinds of periodic variation characteristics of runoff in the past 13 years and 26 years, and the periodic evolution process is influenced by human activities significantly. As far as driving factors are concerned, the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is more than 65%, and the influence of climate change on runoff change is weak, showing a trend from negative to positive.
【作者单位】： 郑州大学水利与环境学院;郑州大学水科学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51279183;51509222) 郑州大学重大科技项目培育基金(2015ZDPY01)~~
【分类号】：P333
，
本文编号：2457750
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