分布式水文模型EasyDHM在太湖流域山丘区的研究与应用
发布时间：2019-04-19 01:44
【摘要】：洪涝灾害、干旱缺水和水生态环境恶化等三大水问题是制约我国经济社会发展的重要因素。太湖流域位于长江三角洲南缘,滨江临海,地势低洼,受风暴潮和长江洪水的双重威胁。针对太湖流域“雨量充沛、洪涝频繁,地势低洼、容易成灾,太湖水位易涨难落、险情不断,经济发达、均淹不得”的防洪特点,建立太湖流域水文预报与调度系统,能够依据实时雨、水、工情信息和天气预报,在计算机上快速进行水文预报计算,以人机交互方式制定实时调度方案,进行调度方案仿真,并且具有水文预报调度数据预处理、水文调度信息查询、水文预报调度报告编制、系统管理等辅助功能,对于辅助防洪减灾、水资源调度、水污染防控等具有重大的生产实践价值和社会经济效益。 为探究气候变化条件下太湖流域山丘区的水文气象要素变化规律,本研究中首先要对太湖流域山丘区进行了分布式水文模拟,然后在此基础上进行洪水预报方案精度分析,以期为太湖流域防洪决策提供科学参考。 本文根据太湖流域山丘区的流域信息、土地利用及土壤利用类型、水文气象数据等,基于EasyDHM水文模拟平台,构建了太湖流域山丘区分布式水文模型。并在此基础上完成了典型参数分区的参数率定与验证工作,取得了较好的模拟效果,实现了该流域的分布式洪水预报方案。总体来看,基于分布式水文模型的洪水预报方案,整体达到了乙级以上预报水平,局部可以达到甲级预报水平。在五个测站的洪水预报评价中,预报精度等级达到甲级的站点有1个,剩余4个站点中,有两个站的预报合格率也达到了80%,说明分布式水文模型EasyDHM在太湖流域山区地区洪水模拟中运用良好,预报方案精度均达到或接近甲级,可用于太湖流域山丘地区的短期洪水预报。EasyDHM模型结构清晰,参数具有物理意义,适用范围广泛,实用性较强,并且得到了精度较高的模拟结果,为分布式水文模型在实际的洪水预报奠定了基础。
[Abstract]:Three major water problems, such as flood disaster, drought and water shortage, and deterioration of water ecological environment, are the important factors restricting the economic and social development of our country. Taihu Lake basin is located in the southern margin of the Yangtze River Delta. It is low-lying and is threatened by storm surge and flood of the Yangtze River. In view of the flood control features of "abundant rainfall, frequent flooding, low-lying topography, easy disaster formation, easy rise and fall of water level in Taihu Lake, continuous danger and economic development, and no flooding", a hydrological forecasting and regulation system was established in the Taihu Lake Basin. According to the real-time rain, water, working condition information and weather forecast, we can quickly calculate the hydrological forecast on the computer, draw up the real-time dispatching scheme in the way of man-machine interaction, carry on the dispatching scheme simulation, and have the hydrologic forecast dispatching data pretreatment. The auxiliary functions such as query of hydrologic dispatching information, compilation of hydrological forecast and dispatching report, system management and so on, are of great practical value and social and economic benefits for assisting flood control and disaster reduction, water resource dispatching, water pollution prevention and control, and so on. In order to explore the changing rule of hydrometeorological elements in the hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin under climate change, the distributed hydrological simulation was first carried out in this study, and then the accuracy analysis of flood forecasting scheme was carried out on the basis of this. In order to provide scientific reference for flood control decision-making in Taihu Lake Basin. Based on the watershed information, land use and soil use types, hydrometeorological data and EasyDHM hydrological simulation platform, a distributed hydrological model for the hilly area of Taihu Lake basin was established in this paper. On this basis, the parameter calibration and verification of typical parameter partition is completed, and good simulation results are obtained, and the distributed flood forecasting scheme of the basin is realized. In general, the flood forecasting scheme based on the distributed hydrological model has reached the level above Grade B and can reach the level of Class A forecast in some areas. Of the five stations for flood forecasting and evaluation, one has a grade A forecast accuracy, and two of the remaining four stations have reached 80 percent of the forecast qualified rate. The results show that the distributed hydrological model EasyDHM is well used in flood simulation in the mountainous areas of Taihu Lake Basin, and the accuracy of the forecasting scheme is up to or near Grade A, which can be used for short-term flood forecasting in the hilly areas of the Taihu Lake Basin. The structure of the EasyDHM model is clear. The parameters have physical significance, wide range of application and strong practicability. The simulation results with high accuracy are obtained, which lays a foundation for the distributed hydrological model to forecast the flood in practice.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P338;P334.92
[Abstract]:Three major water problems, such as flood disaster, drought and water shortage, and deterioration of water ecological environment, are the important factors restricting the economic and social development of our country. Taihu Lake basin is located in the southern margin of the Yangtze River Delta. It is low-lying and is threatened by storm surge and flood of the Yangtze River. In view of the flood control features of "abundant rainfall, frequent flooding, low-lying topography, easy disaster formation, easy rise and fall of water level in Taihu Lake, continuous danger and economic development, and no flooding", a hydrological forecasting and regulation system was established in the Taihu Lake Basin. According to the real-time rain, water, working condition information and weather forecast, we can quickly calculate the hydrological forecast on the computer, draw up the real-time dispatching scheme in the way of man-machine interaction, carry on the dispatching scheme simulation, and have the hydrologic forecast dispatching data pretreatment. The auxiliary functions such as query of hydrologic dispatching information, compilation of hydrological forecast and dispatching report, system management and so on, are of great practical value and social and economic benefits for assisting flood control and disaster reduction, water resource dispatching, water pollution prevention and control, and so on. In order to explore the changing rule of hydrometeorological elements in the hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin under climate change, the distributed hydrological simulation was first carried out in this study, and then the accuracy analysis of flood forecasting scheme was carried out on the basis of this. In order to provide scientific reference for flood control decision-making in Taihu Lake Basin. Based on the watershed information, land use and soil use types, hydrometeorological data and EasyDHM hydrological simulation platform, a distributed hydrological model for the hilly area of Taihu Lake basin was established in this paper. On this basis, the parameter calibration and verification of typical parameter partition is completed, and good simulation results are obtained, and the distributed flood forecasting scheme of the basin is realized. In general, the flood forecasting scheme based on the distributed hydrological model has reached the level above Grade B and can reach the level of Class A forecast in some areas. Of the five stations for flood forecasting and evaluation, one has a grade A forecast accuracy, and two of the remaining four stations have reached 80 percent of the forecast qualified rate. The results show that the distributed hydrological model EasyDHM is well used in flood simulation in the mountainous areas of Taihu Lake Basin, and the accuracy of the forecasting scheme is up to or near Grade A, which can be used for short-term flood forecasting in the hilly areas of the Taihu Lake Basin. The structure of the EasyDHM model is clear. The parameters have physical significance, wide range of application and strong practicability. The simulation results with high accuracy are obtained, which lays a foundation for the distributed hydrological model to forecast the flood in practice.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P338;P334.92
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