门楼水库洪水预报研究
发布时间：2019-05-10 15:12
【摘要】：洪涝灾害是威胁人类生存的十大自然灾害之一,在给工、农业带来巨大损失的同时,还会威胁人类的生命财产安全。洪水预报作为现今重要的防洪减灾非工程措施之一,不但能帮助人类有效的防御洪水、减小洪水灾害给人类带来的危害,并且可以使人类更好的控制和利用水资源。门楼水库流域现有的洪水预报方案精度并不高,由于水库上游修建了大量的中小型水库,对流域的产、汇流起到了较大的影响。本文针对这种影响,利用流域场次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水库库容与面积关系等资料,动态考虑流域产流面积,给出了计算各时段产流面积的方法,将改进后的预报结果与之前的结果进行比较,精度得到大幅度提高,并分析了其合理性。 本文研究内容与成果如下： 本文通过对门楼水库的流域概况、水文资料和现有的洪水预报方案进行分析,根据门楼水库流域的最新需求,利用大伙房模型(DHF)重新编制预报方案。在新的预报方案中,为了提高径流量的模拟精度,将流域的蒸发参数进行分类,确定了根据不同日降雨量对应不同蒸发参数的计算方法,并利用粒子群算法对参数进行优选。 分析了门楼流域上游的小型水库对产、汇流带来的影响。本文利用流域场次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水库库容与面积关系等资料,动态考虑流域产流面积,给出了计算各时段产流面积的方法。在此基础上,编制了考虑上游水利工程影响的预报方案,使得产流精度得到大幅度提高,并从参数和典型洪水两方面分析了其合理性及可能存在的问题。 分析了门楼水库流域汇流预报精度不高的原因,把流域洪水的降雨中心分成上游、下游、均匀降雨三类。对这三类降雨分别利用不同的参数进行汇流模拟,使流域汇流精度得到进一步的提高。并从资料、上游水利工程影响和演进过程三方面分析了汇流仍可能存在的问题。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the ten natural disasters that threaten the survival of human beings. It will not only bring great losses to industry and agriculture, but also threaten the safety of human life and property. Flood forecasting, as one of the important non-engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction, can not only help human beings to effectively prevent floods, reduce the harm caused by flood disasters, but also make human beings better control and use water resources. The accuracy of the existing flood forecasting schemes in the Menglou reservoir basin is not high. Because a large number of small and medium-sized reservoirs have been built in the upper reaches of the reservoir, it has a great impact on the yield and confluence of the basin. In view of this influence, based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given. The improved prediction results are compared with the previous results, and the accuracy is greatly improved, and its rationality is analyzed. The research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the general situation, hydrological data and existing flood forecasting schemes of Menglou Reservoir Basin, according to the latest demand of Mentou Reservoir Basin, The prediction scheme is reworked out by using the large room model (DHF). In the new prediction scheme, in order to improve the simulation accuracy of runoff, the evaporation parameters of the basin are classified, the calculation methods of different evaporation parameters corresponding to different daily rainfall are determined, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters. The influence of small reservoirs in the upper reaches of Menglou Basin on production and confluence is analyzed. Based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given in this paper. On this basis, a forecasting scheme considering the influence of upstream water conservancy projects is worked out, which greatly improves the accuracy of runoff generation, and analyzes its rationality and possible problems from two aspects of parameters and typical floods. This paper analyzes the reasons for the low accuracy of confluence prediction in Menglou Reservoir Basin, and divides the rainfall center of flood into three categories: upstream, downstream and uniform rainfall. The confluence simulation of these three types of rainfall is carried out by using different parameters, which further improves the accuracy of watershed confluence. The possible problems of confluence are analyzed from three aspects: data, influence and evolution process of upstream water conservancy projects.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.13;P338
本文编号：2473754
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the ten natural disasters that threaten the survival of human beings. It will not only bring great losses to industry and agriculture, but also threaten the safety of human life and property. Flood forecasting, as one of the important non-engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction, can not only help human beings to effectively prevent floods, reduce the harm caused by flood disasters, but also make human beings better control and use water resources. The accuracy of the existing flood forecasting schemes in the Menglou reservoir basin is not high. Because a large number of small and medium-sized reservoirs have been built in the upper reaches of the reservoir, it has a great impact on the yield and confluence of the basin. In view of this influence, based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given. The improved prediction results are compared with the previous results, and the accuracy is greatly improved, and its rationality is analyzed. The research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the general situation, hydrological data and existing flood forecasting schemes of Menglou Reservoir Basin, according to the latest demand of Mentou Reservoir Basin, The prediction scheme is reworked out by using the large room model (DHF). In the new prediction scheme, in order to improve the simulation accuracy of runoff, the evaporation parameters of the basin are classified, the calculation methods of different evaporation parameters corresponding to different daily rainfall are determined, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters. The influence of small reservoirs in the upper reaches of Menglou Basin on production and confluence is analyzed. Based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given in this paper. On this basis, a forecasting scheme considering the influence of upstream water conservancy projects is worked out, which greatly improves the accuracy of runoff generation, and analyzes its rationality and possible problems from two aspects of parameters and typical floods. This paper analyzes the reasons for the low accuracy of confluence prediction in Menglou Reservoir Basin, and divides the rainfall center of flood into three categories: upstream, downstream and uniform rainfall. The confluence simulation of these three types of rainfall is carried out by using different parameters, which further improves the accuracy of watershed confluence. The possible problems of confluence are analyzed from three aspects: data, influence and evolution process of upstream water conservancy projects.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.13;P338
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