一种水电工程高危作业安全评价实证方法的研究
发布时间：2019-05-18 01:56
【摘要】：近年来，随着水电工程项目的持续发展，工程施工中高危作业的安全管理受到广泛关注，传统的建筑施工安全管理方法往往无法指导水电施工管理，，因此需要研究科学的安全评价方法指导其安全监督管理，在施工安全中发挥实际效用。 本文通过对大型水电工程施工事故的统计分析，确定高危作业的行为因素及其分类、分层关系，构造适用于水电工程高危作业安全评价的指标框架体系。使用三峡工程、溪洛渡工程和向家坝工程总计186起施工安全事故案例数据，分析并统计引发事故的行为因素，然后运用卡方检验分析因素间的独立性，并进一步运用Lambda相关系数和Tau-y相关系数分析行为因素如何互相影响和相互影响的程度。利用相关系数建立DEMATEL模型，得到各个因素对其他因素的原因度和中心度，更好的理解系统指标因素间的结构关系和在系统中的作用方式。将DEMATEL方法与ANP方法结合，改进了传统ANP方法建模中通过专家意见对指标因素评分来获取指标优势度比较存在的问题。并结合DEMATEL模型的计算评价的结果对ANP权重进行修正和解释。最后针对具体的高危作业对象，高边坡工程施工，对过程监控手段给出的安全检查结果，运用证据理论方法进行证据融合，改进了由于安全检查表数据的不确定性、模糊性和主观性问题，并结合安全评价指标的权重，对整体系统施工风险进行评估，提供相应的安全整改意见。 经过多种方法的分析和建模评价，本文最终得到高危作业施工系统中的评价指标的相对重要性，并针对实际案例找到了系统安全薄弱环节，为施工安全管理提供处理意见和分析依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustainable development of hydropower projects, the safety management of high-risk operations in engineering construction has been widely concerned. The traditional construction safety management methods are often unable to guide hydropower construction management. Therefore, it is necessary to study the scientific safety evaluation method to guide its safety supervision and management, and to play a practical role in construction safety. Based on the statistical analysis of construction accidents in large hydropower projects, this paper determines the behavior factors and their classification and stratification relationship of high risk operations, and constructs an index framework system suitable for safety evaluation of high risk operations in hydropower projects. Based on the data of 186 construction safety accidents in the three Gorges Project, Xiluodu Project and Xiangjia Dam Project, the behavioral factors causing the accident are analyzed and counted, and then the independence among the factors is analyzed by chi-square test. Furthermore, Lambda correlation coefficient and Tau-y correlation coefficient were used to analyze how behavioral factors affected each other and the degree of interaction. The DEMATEL model is established by using the correlation coefficient, and the degree of cause and centrality of each factor to other factors are obtained, and the structural relationship between the factors of the system index and the mode of action in the system are better understood. Combining DEMATEL method with ANP method, the problem of obtaining index dominance by expert opinion in traditional ANP method modeling is improved. Combined with the results of calculation and evaluation of DEMATEL model, the weight of ANP is modified and explained. Finally, aiming at the concrete high risk operation object and the construction of high slope engineering, the safety inspection results given by the process monitoring means are given, and the evidence theory method is used to fuse the evidence, which improves the uncertainty of the safety inspection table data. Fuzziness and subjectivity, combined with the weight of safety evaluation index, the construction risk of the whole system is evaluated, and the corresponding safety rectification suggestions are provided. Through the analysis and modeling evaluation of various methods, this paper finally obtains the relative importance of the evaluation index in the high risk operation construction system, and finds the weak link of the system safety according to the actual case. It provides treatment opinions and analysis basis for construction safety management.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV513
本文编号：2479578
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustainable development of hydropower projects, the safety management of high-risk operations in engineering construction has been widely concerned. The traditional construction safety management methods are often unable to guide hydropower construction management. Therefore, it is necessary to study the scientific safety evaluation method to guide its safety supervision and management, and to play a practical role in construction safety. Based on the statistical analysis of construction accidents in large hydropower projects, this paper determines the behavior factors and their classification and stratification relationship of high risk operations, and constructs an index framework system suitable for safety evaluation of high risk operations in hydropower projects. Based on the data of 186 construction safety accidents in the three Gorges Project, Xiluodu Project and Xiangjia Dam Project, the behavioral factors causing the accident are analyzed and counted, and then the independence among the factors is analyzed by chi-square test. Furthermore, Lambda correlation coefficient and Tau-y correlation coefficient were used to analyze how behavioral factors affected each other and the degree of interaction. The DEMATEL model is established by using the correlation coefficient, and the degree of cause and centrality of each factor to other factors are obtained, and the structural relationship between the factors of the system index and the mode of action in the system are better understood. Combining DEMATEL method with ANP method, the problem of obtaining index dominance by expert opinion in traditional ANP method modeling is improved. Combined with the results of calculation and evaluation of DEMATEL model, the weight of ANP is modified and explained. Finally, aiming at the concrete high risk operation object and the construction of high slope engineering, the safety inspection results given by the process monitoring means are given, and the evidence theory method is used to fuse the evidence, which improves the uncertainty of the safety inspection table data. Fuzziness and subjectivity, combined with the weight of safety evaluation index, the construction risk of the whole system is evaluated, and the corresponding safety rectification suggestions are provided. Through the analysis and modeling evaluation of various methods, this paper finally obtains the relative importance of the evaluation index in the high risk operation construction system, and finds the weak link of the system safety according to the actual case. It provides treatment opinions and analysis basis for construction safety management.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV513
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