漓江流域上游洪水预报方案研究与应用
发布时间：2019-05-28 19:03
【摘要】：漓江流域上游是广西山洪灾害多发区中较严重的流域之一,为了对漓江流域上游防洪减灾提供技术上的支持,根据漓江流域上游的水文资料、地形地貌及气候特征,构建漓江流域上游三水源新安江模型洪水预报方案。选取2008~2013年的27场洪水作为率定期洪水,2014~2015年8场洪水作为验证期洪水进行降雨径流模拟。模拟计算结果表明:率定期模拟合格率为85.2%,平均确定性系数为0.850;验证期合格率为87.5%,达到甲级精度,平均确定性系数为0.87,达到乙级精度。模拟结果的分析表明,三水源新安江模型适用于漓江流域上游且取得较好的模拟结果,可为漓江流域上游洪水作业预报提供参考。
[Abstract]:The upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin is one of the most serious basins in the mountainous flood disaster-prone areas of Guangxi. In order to provide technical support for flood control and disaster reduction in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, according to the hydrological data, topography, geomorphology and climate characteristics of the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, The flood forecasting scheme of Xinanjiang River model with three water sources in the upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin is constructed. 27 floods from 2008 to 2013 were selected as regular floods, and 8 floods from 2014 to 2015 were selected as verification period floods to simulate rainfall and runoff. The simulation results show that the qualified rate of periodic simulation is 85.2%, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.850, and the qualified rate of verification period is 8.5%, which reaches the accuracy of Grade A, and the average deterministic coefficient is 0.87, which reaches the accuracy of Grade B. The analysis of the simulation results shows that the three water source Xin'an River model is suitable for the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin and obtains good simulation results, which can provide a reference for the flood operation forecast in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin.
【作者单位】： 广西大学土木建筑工程学院;广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室;广西南宁水利电力设计院;广西南宁禹道水利科技有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51469002，51009029) 广西自然科学基金(2015GXNSFBA139218) 广西科学研究与技术开发计划(桂科攻1298005-6) 广西重点实验室系统性研究项目(2014ZDX012)
【分类号】：P338
本文编号：2487290
[Abstract]:The upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin is one of the most serious basins in the mountainous flood disaster-prone areas of Guangxi. In order to provide technical support for flood control and disaster reduction in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, according to the hydrological data, topography, geomorphology and climate characteristics of the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin, The flood forecasting scheme of Xinanjiang River model with three water sources in the upper reaches of Lijiang River Basin is constructed. 27 floods from 2008 to 2013 were selected as regular floods, and 8 floods from 2014 to 2015 were selected as verification period floods to simulate rainfall and runoff. The simulation results show that the qualified rate of periodic simulation is 85.2%, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.850, and the qualified rate of verification period is 8.5%, which reaches the accuracy of Grade A, and the average deterministic coefficient is 0.87, which reaches the accuracy of Grade B. The analysis of the simulation results shows that the three water source Xin'an River model is suitable for the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin and obtains good simulation results, which can provide a reference for the flood operation forecast in the upper reaches of the Lijiang River Basin.
【作者单位】： 广西大学土木建筑工程学院;广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室;广西南宁水利电力设计院;广西南宁禹道水利科技有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51469002，51009029) 广西自然科学基金(2015GXNSFBA139218) 广西科学研究与技术开发计划(桂科攻1298005-6) 广西重点实验室系统性研究项目(2014ZDX012)
【分类号】：P338
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 黄月群;程亚平;;漓江流域含沙量变化研究[J];泥沙研究;2008年04期
2 ;[J];;年期
，本文编号：2487290
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/shuiwenshuili/2487290.html
