南宁市防洪工程体系的防洪能力及防洪风险研究
发布时间：2019-06-14 20:10
【摘要】：本文以南宁市库堤联合的防洪工程体系为研究对象,考虑入库洪水的随机性及洪水随机组合,采用蒙特卡罗法结合季节性一阶自回归模型计算南宁市防洪工程体系的防洪风险率,通过允许风险分析方法判断城市的防洪能力。 通过研究表明：采用季节性一阶自回归模型模拟百色水库、区间入库洪水,模拟的洪水特征参数与实测洪水特征参数相对误差较小,均在5%以内,能较好的反映实测样本的统计特性；采用模拟洪水与南宁控制断面各频率设计洪水按一定规则组合,经南宁市防洪工程体系联合调度,计算得体系的风险率。两方案计算结果表明：在仅考虑漫坝及漫堤破坏风险的情况下,当南宁控制断面发生50～250年一遇洪水时,体系没有出现漫坝、漫堤破坏风险；当南宁控制断面发生300年一遇及以上洪水时,体系风险率增大,洪水频率越小风险率越趋近于1。方案一计算的风险率大于方案二,因为方案一洪水组合中,洪水主要来自区间,老口水库防洪库容较小,对南宁市防洪较为不利。同时也说明了方案一的风险率计算结果更接近于工程实际,其洪水组合方式基本符合南宁市洪水组成特点。以生命损失风险为指标,采用允许风险分析方法计算体系风险。在仅考虑漫坝及漫堤破坏风险的情况下,当南宁控制断面发生300年一遇洪水时,体系风险值远远超过允许风险标准。综合判断,南宁市防洪工程体系防洪能力基本上达到250年一遇洪水标准,略大于南宁市原规划设计的200年一遇的防洪标准。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the flood control engineering system of Nanning reservoir embankment is taken as the research object, considering the randomness of flood and random combination of flood, Monte Carlo method combined with seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to calculate the flood control risk rate of Nanning flood control engineering system, and the flood control capacity of Nanning city is judged by allowable risk analysis method. The results show that the seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to simulate the flood in Baise reservoir, and the relative error between the simulated flood characteristic parameters and the measured flood characteristic parameters is small, which is less than 5%, which can better reflect the statistical characteristics of the measured samples. By using the combination of simulated flood and Nanning control section frequency design flood according to certain rules, the risk rate of the system is calculated by the joint dispatching of Nanning flood control engineering system. The calculation results of the two schemes show that when the flood in Nanning control section occurs once in 50 years and 250 years, the system does not overrun the dam, and when the flood occurs more than 300 years in Nanning control section, the risk rate of the system increases, and the smaller the flood frequency is, the closer the risk rate is. The risk rate calculated in the first scheme is higher than that in the second scheme, because in the scheme-flood combination, the flood mainly comes from the interval, and the flood control capacity of the Lakou reservoir is small, which is disadvantageous to the flood control of Nanning City. At the same time, it is shown that the calculation results of the risk rate of scheme 1 are closer to the engineering practice, and the flood combination mode basically accords with the characteristics of flood composition in Nanning. Taking the risk of loss of life as the index, the allowable risk analysis method is used to calculate the system risk. When the flood occurs once in 300 years, the risk value of the system far exceeds the allowable risk standard when only the failure risk of overflowing dam and embankment is taken into account, and the risk value of the system is much higher than the allowable risk standard when there is a flood in Nanning control section once in 300 years. According to the comprehensive judgment, the flood control capacity of Nanning flood control engineering system basically reaches the flood control standard of 250 years, which is slightly larger than the flood control standard of 200 years originally planned and designed in Nanning City.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU998.4;TV87
本文编号：2499653
[Abstract]:In this paper, the flood control engineering system of Nanning reservoir embankment is taken as the research object, considering the randomness of flood and random combination of flood, Monte Carlo method combined with seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to calculate the flood control risk rate of Nanning flood control engineering system, and the flood control capacity of Nanning city is judged by allowable risk analysis method. The results show that the seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to simulate the flood in Baise reservoir, and the relative error between the simulated flood characteristic parameters and the measured flood characteristic parameters is small, which is less than 5%, which can better reflect the statistical characteristics of the measured samples. By using the combination of simulated flood and Nanning control section frequency design flood according to certain rules, the risk rate of the system is calculated by the joint dispatching of Nanning flood control engineering system. The calculation results of the two schemes show that when the flood in Nanning control section occurs once in 50 years and 250 years, the system does not overrun the dam, and when the flood occurs more than 300 years in Nanning control section, the risk rate of the system increases, and the smaller the flood frequency is, the closer the risk rate is. The risk rate calculated in the first scheme is higher than that in the second scheme, because in the scheme-flood combination, the flood mainly comes from the interval, and the flood control capacity of the Lakou reservoir is small, which is disadvantageous to the flood control of Nanning City. At the same time, it is shown that the calculation results of the risk rate of scheme 1 are closer to the engineering practice, and the flood combination mode basically accords with the characteristics of flood composition in Nanning. Taking the risk of loss of life as the index, the allowable risk analysis method is used to calculate the system risk. When the flood occurs once in 300 years, the risk value of the system far exceeds the allowable risk standard when only the failure risk of overflowing dam and embankment is taken into account, and the risk value of the system is much higher than the allowable risk standard when there is a flood in Nanning control section once in 300 years. According to the comprehensive judgment, the flood control capacity of Nanning flood control engineering system basically reaches the flood control standard of 250 years, which is slightly larger than the flood control standard of 200 years originally planned and designed in Nanning City.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU998.4;TV87
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