基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率
发布时间：2019-06-17 07:39
【摘要】：基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1 d、3 d降水量资料,利用Copula联结函数构建联合分布函数,推算相应的同现重现期和组合风险率,并以此为基础,评价常州市2015年"6·26"暴雨可能的重现期和风险率。结果表明:某一设计标准下的年最大1 d、3 d降水遭遇时的同现重现期大于年最大1 d或3 d降水单变量对应的重现期;同一设计频率的暴雨遭遇的风险率较高,且随着重现期增大而减小;"6·26"暴雨的同现重现期为218 a,同现风险率为17.4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性和罕见性,常州市未来的防洪形势将更为严峻。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual maximum precipitation data of Changzhou rainfall station from 1951 to 2015, the joint distribution function is constructed by using Copula connection function, and the corresponding recurrence period and combination risk rate are calculated. On this basis, the possible recurrence period and risk rate of "June 26" rainstorm in Changzhou City in 2015 are evaluated. The results show that the annual maximum of 1 day under a certain design standard is 1 day, and the recurrence period of precipitation in 3 days is larger than that corresponding to the univariable of 1 or 3 days of precipitation, and the risk rate of rainstorm in the same design frequency is higher and decreases with the increase of recurrence period. The recurrence period of "6 路26" rainstorm is 218 a, and the risk rate of the same occurrence is 17.4%. The rainstorm is special and rare, and the flood control situation in Changzhou City will be more serious in the future.
【作者单位】： 江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局;
【分类号】：P333.2
，
本文编号：2500808
[Abstract]:Based on the annual maximum precipitation data of Changzhou rainfall station from 1951 to 2015, the joint distribution function is constructed by using Copula connection function, and the corresponding recurrence period and combination risk rate are calculated. On this basis, the possible recurrence period and risk rate of "June 26" rainstorm in Changzhou City in 2015 are evaluated. The results show that the annual maximum of 1 day under a certain design standard is 1 day, and the recurrence period of precipitation in 3 days is larger than that corresponding to the univariable of 1 or 3 days of precipitation, and the risk rate of rainstorm in the same design frequency is higher and decreases with the increase of recurrence period. The recurrence period of "6 路26" rainstorm is 218 a, and the risk rate of the same occurrence is 17.4%. The rainstorm is special and rare, and the flood control situation in Changzhou City will be more serious in the future.
【作者单位】： 江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局;
【分类号】：P333.2
，
本文编号：2500808
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