临淮岗洪水控制工程汛期分期及分期设计洪水研究

发布时间：2019-06-19 22:50

【摘要】：本文依据润河集水文站实测降雨及流量资料进行分析研究,在充分考虑汛期过程所具有的随机性、模糊性等属性的基础上,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。定性分析法中的气象成因分析法最具代表性,它通过成因分析法将研究区域汛期进行划分;定量分析法又分为统计分析法和聚类分析法。采用统计分析法中具有代表性的数理统计法对研究区域的汛期进行划分;分别采用聚类分析法中的模糊集分析法、集对分析法、分形分析法和Fisher最优分割法对研究区域的汛期进行划分。通过对各分期方法的适用性分析,最后选择采用Fisher最优分割法得到的分期结果作为研究区域的分期结果,最终确定临淮岗洪水控制工程的汛期分期结果为:前汛期为5月1日~6月10日,主汛期为6月11日~8月10日,后汛期为8月11日~9月30日。在汛期分期结果的基础上,通过总结比较目前存在的几种取样方法的优缺点,选择分期最大值取样法来研究临淮岗洪水控制工程的分期设计洪水。对于取样方式,采用跨期取样,在原设定的各分期起止日期的基础上向前后各延伸5天。经过对洪水频率的概化研究,在不降低年防洪标准的基础上,对主汛期采用年最大值取样法,防洪标准为年防洪标准,前汛期和后汛期采用分期最大值取样,防洪标准为主汛期防洪标准(年防洪标准)的3倍。根据收集的实测洪水资料,统计得到各分期洪水的指标样本,将得到的洪水指标样本进行皮尔逊Ⅲ型频率曲线拟合。经计算得到各分期的设计洪水指标值,将现行分期设计洪水法和本文所采用的方法计算得到的分期设计洪水指标值与原年设计洪水指标值进行对比,分析得到本文所采用的方法得到的设计洪水指标值与原年设计洪水指标值更接近,既能反映洪水的季节性变化规律,又能满足年防洪标准的要求。
[Abstract]:Based on the measured rainfall and flow data of Runheji Hydrological Station, this paper adopts the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis on the basis of fully considering the randomness and fuzziness of flood season process. The meteorological cause analysis method in qualitative analysis method is the most representative, which divides the flood season of the study area through the cause analysis method, and the quantitative analysis method is divided into statistical analysis method and cluster analysis method. The representative mathematical statistics method in statistical analysis is used to divide the flood season of the study area, and the fuzzy set analysis, set pair analysis, fractal analysis and Fisher optimal segmentation method in cluster analysis are used to divide the flood season of the study area. Based on the analysis of the applicability of each staging method, the staging results obtained by Fisher optimal segmentation method are selected as the staging results of the study area. The flood season staging results of Linhuaigang Flood Control Project are determined as follows: the first flood season is from May 1 to June 10, the main flood season is from June 11 to August 10, and the latter flood season is from August 11 to September 30. On the basis of flood season staging results, by summing up and comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several existing sampling methods, the phased maximum sampling method is selected to study the phased design flood of Linhuaigang Flood Control Project. For the sampling method, intertemporal sampling is adopted, and the original starting and ending dates of each stage are extended for 5 days. Through the general study of flood frequency, on the basis of not reducing the annual flood control standard, the annual maximum sampling method is adopted for the main flood season. The flood control standard is the annual flood control standard, the first flood season and the later flood season are sampled by stages, and the flood control standard is three times of the flood control standard in flood season (annual flood control standard). According to the measured flood data, the index samples of each stage flood are statistically obtained, and the flood index samples are fitted with Pearson type III frequency curve. The design flood index values of each stage are calculated, and the design flood index values calculated by the current phased design flood method and the method used in this paper are compared with the design flood index values in the same year. The design flood index values obtained by the method used in this paper are more close to the design flood index values in the original year, which can not only reflect the seasonal variation law of the flood, but also meet the requirements of the annual flood control standard.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV122.3;TV87

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