混凝土坝施工进度和成本的挣值分析研究

发布时间：2019-06-21 05:39

【摘要】：当前正是我国水利工程项目发展建设的高峰期,有大量在建的水利工程项目,每年还会有很多新的项目开工,大型水利工程具有风险的多样性以及施工干扰因素众多等特点,而混凝土坝作为当前国内水利水电工程最主要的坝型,由于混凝土坝的复杂性,现阶段国内针对混凝土坝施工过程的研究主要集中在施工过程模拟、施工过程模拟结果的可视化上,具体到在施工过程中立足业主的角度,针对复杂约束条件下混凝土坝进行实时费用-进度联合分析与工期预测的研究相对较少,而通过对混凝土坝施工过程中进行施工进度与费用实时分析控制的理论方法与应用研究表明,费用-进度集成管理可以使工程的实施和计划紧密结合,便于业主方对于工程的掌控,在对已完工作分析的基础上,进一步对未完工工作进行预测,在施工过程中通过实时分析结果指导下一阶段工程的施工,从而解决我国以往水利工程项目中成本大幅超支以及工期严重拖延的问题,对提升我国水利工程界的项目管理水平意义重大,因此,在混凝土坝的施工过程中对项目的费用占用以及进度进展情况进行联合评价与集成管理对我国水利工程的发展具有重要研究意义。本文采用赢得值原理对混凝土坝施工过程中已完工作进行费用-进度联合分析,并依据其分析结果,对未完工工作进行工期预测与费用预测。首先,本文选择坝体混凝土工程为研究对象,对混凝土坝工程主要类型,以及其实施过程与特点进行了简要介绍,指出了在坝体混凝土工程中进行费用-进度联合分析基础上的工期与费用预测的重要性。其次,对在已完工工作挣值分析的基础上如何进行工期与费用指标的预测进行了研究。其中,本文重点研究了在工期、费用指标预测中应用赢得值原理,并优化了工期预测体系,构建了工期预测指标体系。最后,在网络图的基础上,应用赢得值原理,考虑造成工程实时进展与计划不一致的两种情况,引入有效工期赢得值、有效费用赢得值、返工率等变量,建立了基于赢得值原理的项目完工工期预测体系。本文以坝体混凝土工程为例,应用基于传统的赢得值原理构建的工期与费用预测指标体系对坝体混凝土工程进行了实例分析。最终,得出了基于当前考核时点处已完工工作的挣值分析结果,并据其对未完工工作和项目整体进行了工期与费用预测。与传统赢得值原理的预测结果相比,本文的预测结果准确性更高,适用性也更好。实例分析表明,在混凝土坝工程中采用赢得值原理进行费用-进度联合分析与工期预测可以更好地跟踪项目实时进展过程中费用占用与进度进展状况,并及时作出调整。
[Abstract]:At present, it is the peak period of the development and construction of water conservancy projects in our country, there are a large number of water conservancy projects under construction, and many new projects will start every year. Large-scale water conservancy projects have the characteristics of diversity of risks and many construction interference factors. Concrete dam, as the most important dam type of water conservancy and hydropower projects in China, is due to the complexity of concrete dams. At present, the domestic research on the construction process of concrete dam mainly focuses on the simulation of construction process. The visualization of the simulation results of construction process is based on the point of view of the owner in the construction process, and the research on real-time cost-schedule joint analysis and time limit prediction of concrete dam under complex constraints is relatively few. Through the research on the theory, method and application of real-time analysis and control of construction schedule and cost in the construction process of concrete dam, it is shown that the integrated management of cost and schedule can closely combine the implementation and plan of the project, which is convenient for the owner to control the project. On the basis of the analysis of the completed work, the unfinished work is further predicted, and the construction of the next stage of the project is guided by the results of real-time analysis in the construction process. In order to solve the problems of large cost overexpenditure and serious delay in the construction period of water conservancy projects in our country, it is of great significance to improve the project management level in the field of water conservancy projects in our country. Therefore, the joint evaluation and integrated management of the cost occupation and progress of the project in the construction process of concrete dams is of great significance to the development of water conservancy projects in our country. In this paper, the winning value principle is used to analyze the cost and progress of the finished work in the construction process of concrete dam, and according to the analysis results, the time limit prediction and cost prediction of the unfinished work are carried out. First of all, this paper selects the dam concrete project as the research object, briefly introduces the main types of concrete dam engineering, as well as its implementation process and characteristics, and points out the importance of the construction period and cost prediction based on the joint cost-schedule analysis in the dam concrete project. Secondly, on the basis of earned value analysis of completed work, how to predict the construction period and cost index is studied. Among them, this paper focuses on the application of winning value principle in the prediction of time limit and cost index, optimizes the time limit prediction system, and constructs the time limit prediction index system. Finally, on the basis of network diagram, using the winning value principle, considering the two cases that cause the real-time progress of the project to be inconsistent with the plan, the effective time limit winning value, the effective cost winning value, the rework rate and other variables are introduced, and the project completion time prediction system based on the winning value principle is established. Taking the concrete project of dam body as an example, this paper analyzes the concrete project of dam body by using the prediction index system of time limit and cost based on the traditional winning value principle. Finally, the earned value analysis results based on the completed work at the current assessment time point are obtained, and the time limit and cost of the unfinished work and the project as a whole are predicted. Compared with the traditional winning value principle, the prediction results in this paper are more accurate and applicable. The example analysis shows that the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction can better track the cost occupation and progress in the real-time progress of the project, and adjust it in time by using the winning value principle to carry out the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction in the concrete dam project.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV642;TV511

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