气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究
发布时间：2019-07-16 06:33
【摘要】：以汉江上游为例,基于弹性系数法和水文模拟法定量估算气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响,探讨了变化环境下流域径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应特征。研究结果表明:1961年-2013年汉江上游流域径流呈明显下降趋势,并在1985年前后发生了突变;降水及潜在蒸散发在同时期内也逐渐降低,但变化趋势不显著。气候变化对径流变化的贡献率为42.8%~43.5%,人类活动对径流变化的贡献率为56.5%~57.2%,相比人类活动对汉江上游径流的影响稍大,且其对径流变化的影响呈现增长的趋势。
[Abstract]:Taking the upper reaches of Hanjiang River as an example, the effects of climate change and human activities on watershed runoff are quantitatively estimated based on elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method, and the response characteristics of watershed runoff to climate change and human activities under changing environment are discussed. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River from 1961 to 2013 shows an obvious downward trend, and there is a sudden change around 1985, and the precipitation and potential evaporation also decrease gradually in the same period, but the change trend is not significant. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 42.8% 鈮，
本文编号：2514894
[Abstract]:Taking the upper reaches of Hanjiang River as an example, the effects of climate change and human activities on watershed runoff are quantitatively estimated based on elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method, and the response characteristics of watershed runoff to climate change and human activities under changing environment are discussed. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River from 1961 to 2013 shows an obvious downward trend, and there is a sudden change around 1985, and the precipitation and potential evaporation also decrease gradually in the same period, but the change trend is not significant. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 42.8% 鈮，
本文编号：2514894
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