黄河上游近期洪水情势预测分析

发布时间：2019-08-02 09:02

【摘要】：【目的】分析黄河上游唐乃亥流域年最大洪峰流量序列并对年最大洪峰流量进行预测,为内蒙古河段的防洪减淤提供参考。【方法】借鉴集合预报的思路,依据模糊数学理论和马尔科夫随机过程理论,建立黄河上游唐乃亥流域58年来年最大洪峰序列的综合预估模型,对唐乃亥流域未来几年的洪水情势进行了预估,以冲刷内蒙古河段所需流量对应的唐乃亥站流量为目标流量,分析其发生的可能性。【结果】唐乃亥站未来5年的洪水将进入中偏大的状态,年最大洪洪峰流量在2017年达到最大,量级为3 520m3/s,但出现概率仅为33%;唐乃亥站在未来几年超过目标流量洪水出现的概率为33%。【结论】未来5年中,依靠上游唐乃亥的天然来水解决内蒙古河段淤积问题的可能性较小。
[Abstract]:[objective] to analyze the annual maximum flood peak discharge series and predict the annual maximum flood peak discharge in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, so as to provide reference for flood control and siltation reduction in Inner Mongolia reach. [methods] based on the idea of collective prediction, according to the fuzzy mathematics theory and Markov stochastic process theory, the comprehensive prediction model of the annual maximum flood peak sequence in the upper reaches of the Yellow River in the past 58 years is established. The flood situation of Tang Naihai River Basin in the next few years is predicted, and the possibility of its occurrence is analyzed by taking the flow rate corresponding to the required flow in Inner Mongolia reach as the target flow. [results] the flood at Tang Naihai Station in the next 5 years will enter a medium and large state, and the annual maximum flood peak discharge will reach the maximum in 2017, the order of magnitude is 3.520m3 / s, but the probability of occurrence is only 33%, the maximum flood peak discharge will reach the maximum in 2017, the order of magnitude is 3.520m3 / s, but the probability of occurrence is only 33%. The probability of Tang Naihai station surpassing the target flow flood in the next few years is 33%. [conclusion] in the next five years, it is less likely to rely on the natural incoming water from the upper reaches of Tang Naihai to solve the siltation problem in Inner Mongolia reach.
【作者单位】：西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室;黄河水利委员会宁蒙水文水资源局;陕西黄河生态工程有限公司;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”计划)项目(2011CB403305)
【分类号】：P333.2

【相似文献】