强迫Lorenz系统的可预报性研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 09:50

本文选题：非线性局部Lyapunov指数　切入点：可预报性　出处：《物理学报》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：根据非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法,分别以常数强迫Lorenz系统和准周期强迫Lorenz系统为例,研究了在外强迫存在的条件下混沌系统可预报性的改变.结果表明:外强迫会影响混沌系统的可预报性,两种不同类型的强迫Lorenz系统的可预报期限都随着外强迫的增强而增加,但是大小相等方向相反的外强迫对系统可预报性的影响不同,其中正值强迫比负值强迫作用下的可预报期限更长,并且这种差异随着强度的增加而增大;不同形式的外强迫对可预报性的影响也不同,常数强迫的影响主要体现在误差增长的线性阶段,准周期强迫的影响除了线性阶段还必须考虑到非线性阶段;当强度相等的常数强迫和准周期强迫驱动Lorenz系统时,常数强迫作用下的系统可预报性更高.本文基于混沌理论模型的研究,对于实际大气的可预报性研究具有一定的启示意义.
[Abstract]:According to the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method, the constant forced Lorenz system and the quasi-periodic forced Lorenz system are taken as examples, respectively. The change of the predictability of chaotic systems under the condition of external forcing is studied. The results show that external forcing affects the predictability of chaotic systems, and the predictable periods of two different types of forced Lorenz systems increase with the increase of external forcing. However, the external forcing with the opposite direction has different effects on the predictability of the system, in which the positive forcing is longer than the negative forcing, and the difference increases with the increase of the intensity. The influence of different forms of external forcing on predictability is also different. The influence of constant forcing is mainly reflected in the linear stage of error growth, and the influence of quasi-periodic forcing must take into account the nonlinear stage in addition to the linear stage. When constant forcing and quasi-periodic forcing drive Lorenz systems with equal intensity, the system under constant forcing is more predictable. In this paper, the study of chaotic theory model has a certain significance for the study of the predictability of the actual atmosphere.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学地球科学学院;成都信息工程大学高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室;北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院;全球变化研究协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金(批准号:41522502) “全球变化与海气相互作用”专项(批准号:GASI-IPOVAI-06) 国家重点研发计划(批准号:2016YFA0601801)资助的课题~~
【分类号】：O415.5

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