一种不改变RBD拓扑结构的三态贝叶斯网络

发布时间：2018-06-10 05:42

本文选题：贝叶斯网络 + 三态贝叶斯网络　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年02期

【摘要】：针对将可靠性框图(RBD)转化为等价三层贝叶斯网络(BN)时存在的与RBD结构差异大的缺陷及组合爆炸问题,提出了一种将RBD转化为同构三态BN网络的方法.通过将失效分为"物理故障"和"正常却不工作"两种模式,提出将网络节点转换为包含正常状态以及上述两种失效模式的三态节点,取代仅有正常和失效两种模式的传统模型节点.并在此基础上深入分析了三态BN模型节点的条件概率表(CPT)设置方法.最后建立了与某型飞机航行任务RBD等价的三层BN模型和同构三态BN模型,并对两种BN进行分析计算.理论和实例分析均表明,本文建立的三态BN不仅与原RBD拓扑结构相同,且能够有效解决三层BN存在的组合爆炸问题,可成为系统可靠性分析的有效手段.
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem that the reliability block diagram (RBD) is transformed into equivalent three-layer Bayesian network (BNs), which is different from RBD structure and the problem of combinatorial explosion, a method of transforming RBD into isomorphic three-state BN network is proposed. By classifying failure into "physical failure" mode and "normal but not working" mode, it is proposed that the network node should be transformed into a three-state node containing the normal state and the above two failure modes. To replace the traditional model nodes with only normal and failure modes. On this basis, the method of setting conditional probability table (CPT) of three state BN model nodes is analyzed. Finally, a three-layer BN model and a isomorphic three-state BN model are established, which are equivalent to the RBD of a certain aircraft flight mission, and the two kinds of BN are analyzed and calculated. Both theoretical and practical analysis show that the tristate BN is not only the same as the original RBD topology, but also can effectively solve the combinatorial explosion problem of the three-layer BN, and it can become an effective means for the reliability analysis of the system.
【作者单位】：西北工业大学航空学院;
【基金】：工信部十二五质量与可靠性技术基础项目(2052013B003)~~
【分类号】：TP18

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