基于系统动力学模型的深圳市龙华新区水资源供需平衡预测及优化

发布时间：2018-01-03 00:30

本文关键词：基于系统动力学模型的深圳市龙华新区水资源供需平衡预测及优化　出处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为解决深圳市龙华新区水资源供需矛盾,运用系统动力学模型(SD模型),结合该区"来-蓄-用-排"的水资源结构链,将人口、经济、产业发展与水资源供需相结合,建立水资源SD模型,模拟了2010~2030年水资源供需比的变化.结果显示,未来在限定境外调水总量的前提下龙华新区水资源匮乏,供需矛盾突出.通过参数敏感性分析识别出6个对水资源供需比影响较大的参数,分别是污水处理回用率、雨水利用率、人均生活用水定额、万元工业产值用水量、第二产业增长率、第三产业增长率.将以上参数作为主要调控变量,依据龙华新区发展规划及国家发展战略设计了情景优化方案,最终给出短期规划与长期规划综合优化方案.短期规划到2020年水资源供需比可由0.93提高到1.05,长期规划到2030年水资源供需比可由0.84提高到1.04.未来龙华新区需进一步加快产业结构调整,建设节水型城市,提高非常规水资源利用率,才能有效解决水资源供需矛盾,保持经济稳增与水资源可持续发展的协调统一.
[Abstract]:In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Longhua New area of Shenzhen City, the system dynamics model and the SD model are used to combine the water resources structure chain of "coming, storing, using and discharging" to make population and economy. Combining industrial development with water supply and demand, the SD model of water resources is established, and the variation of water supply and demand ratio from 2010 to 2030 is simulated. In the future, under the premise of limiting the total amount of water transfer abroad, the water resources of Longhua New area is short, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. Through the parameter sensitivity analysis, six parameters which have great influence on the ratio of water supply and demand are identified. Sewage reuse rate, Rain Water utilization ratio, per capita water consumption quota, 10 thousand yuan industrial output value water consumption, secondary industry growth rate, tertiary industry growth rate. The above parameters as the main control variables. According to the development plan of Longhua New area and the national development strategy, the scenario optimization scheme is designed. Finally, the comprehensive optimization scheme of short-term planning and long-term planning is given. By 2020, the ratio of water resources supply and demand can be increased from 0.93 to 1.05. In 2030, the ratio of water supply and demand can be increased from 0.84 to 1.04.In the future, Longhua New area needs to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, build water-saving cities and improve the utilization rate of unconventional water resources. Only then can we effectively solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, and maintain the coordination and unity between the steady growth of economy and the sustainable development of water resources.
【作者单位】：北京大学环境科学与工程学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室;
【分类号】：N941.3;TV213.4
【正文快照】： 水资源是重要的自然资源和战略性资源[1].随着社会经济快速发展,水资源短缺、水污染严重、水环境恶化等问题日益严峻[2-3],直接影响人类社会的可持续发展[4-5].深圳市龙华新区的设立是深圳率先加快转变经济发展方式,推进城市化、现代化、国际化的一项重大举措.作为一个资源型

【相似文献】