大别山连片特困区相对资源承载力评价

发布时间：2018-01-06 13:29

本文关键词：大别山连片特困区相对资源承载力评价　出处：《首都师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：大别山连片区是国家划定的贫困区,随着人口增长和经济社会发展,该区人地矛盾日趋突出,当地社会经济的可持续发展受到威胁。研究资源承载力,了解研究区人地资源的现状及发展趋势、寻找致贫原因十分必要。本文以人地矛盾较为突出的大别山连片特困区为研究区域,基于高程数据、土壤数据、降水数据、积温数据、社会经济数据及土地利用数据,以县域为研究单元,结合研究区的贫困现状,建立了偏重生产、兼顾生态的“自然—经济—生态”指标评价体系,运用主客观权重相结合的方法赋权重值,通过改进资源承载力几何计算模型,以片区所在三省、我国中部六省分别为参照区,对2010年大别山连片特困区的自然、经济、生态及综合资源承载力进行空间分异性分析；以三省动态研究当年资源承载力状况为参照,对大别山各类资源承载力进行动态分析(2001年-2010年),并运用二次指数平滑方法预测片区2015年的资源承载力状况。分析结果表明,目前,片区北部自然资源承载力最差；片区中部县域经济资源承载力最差；生态资源承载力最差的区域为片区的中北部县域；片区大部分县域综合资源承载力处于不同程度的超载状态。由2001年-2010年的片区承载力的变化分析可知,经济资源承载力对综合资源承载力的贡献率最大,但一直处于超载状况,超载程度不断下降；自然资源承载力的贡献率不高,但有超载趋势；生态资源承载力不断得到提升,贡献率逐步增大。预计到2015年,片区的经济及综合资源的超载率能得到控制,生态资源承载力进一步得到提升,自然资源承载力下降,处于超载状态。
[Abstract]:The Dabie Mountain area is a poverty-stricken area designated by the country. With the population growth and economic and social development, the contradiction between the population and the land is becoming more and more prominent, and the sustainable development of the local social economy is threatened. It is necessary to understand the present situation and development trend of human and land resources in the study area and to find out the causes of poverty. Based on elevation data, soil data, precipitation data, accumulated temperature data, socio-economic data and land use data, this paper takes the Dabie mountain as the research area. Taking the county area as the research unit and combining the poverty situation of the research area, the paper establishes the evaluation system of "nature, economy and ecology" index which emphasizes on production and takes into account ecology, and assigns weight value by combining subjective and objective weights. By improving the geometric calculation model of the carrying capacity of resources, taking the three provinces in which the area is located and the six provinces in the central part of China as the reference areas, the natural and economic situation of the special hardship area in the Dabie Mountains in 2010 is studied. Ecological and comprehensive resources carrying capacity were analyzed by spatial heterogeneity. Based on the dynamic study on the carrying capacity of resources in the three provinces, this paper makes a dynamic analysis of the carrying capacity of all kinds of resources in Dabie Mountain (2001-2010). The quadratic exponential smoothing method is used to predict the resource carrying capacity in 2015. The results show that the natural resource carrying capacity in the northern part of the region is the worst at present. The carrying capacity of economic resources in the central region of the region is the worst; The region with the worst ecological resources carrying capacity is the central and northern counties of the region. The comprehensive resource carrying capacity of most counties is in the state of overload in different degree. From 2001 to 2010, the change of the carrying capacity of the region can be seen. The contribution rate of economic resources carrying capacity to the comprehensive resources carrying capacity is the largest, but it is always in the situation of overload, and the overload degree is decreasing continuously. The contribution rate of natural resources carrying capacity is not high, but has the tendency of overload; By 2015, the economic and comprehensive resource overload rate of the region can be controlled, and the ecological resources carrying capacity can be further enhanced. The bearing capacity of natural resources is decreased and overloaded.
【学位授予单位】：首都师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;X24

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