干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应——以石羊河中下游为例

发布时间：2018-01-06 19:01

本文关键词：干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应——以石羊河中下游为例　出处：《地理科学》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：内陆河流域水资源极为紧缺,理解农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略选择倾向对于制定科学的水资源管理政策至关重要。以石羊河中下游为研究区,基于农户调查数据,分析了农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略,并利用经济计量模型分析了农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响。结果发现:1农户感知到的水资源紧缺可能性、严重性、适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能处于中等水平;2水资源紧缺风险感知与适应功效感知、适应成本感知呈显著正相关,其与自我效能感知虽呈负相关,但并不显著;3农户的适应策略多样化指数达2.80,水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化指数呈显著正相关;4随着风险感知与适应功效感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率增大,但随着自我效能感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率降低。最后,提出了增强农户适应能力的对策建议及未来需进一步关注的问题。
[Abstract]:Water resources are extremely scarce in inland river basin. Understanding farmers' perception of water resources shortage and the tendency of adaptation strategy selection are very important for the formulation of scientific water resources management policy. Take the middle and lower reaches of Shiyang River as the research area. Based on the survey data, this paper analyzes the farmers' perception of water shortage and their adaptation strategies. Using econometric model, this paper analyzes the influence of household water shortage sexy knowledge on the choice of adaptation strategy. The results show that the possibility and severity of water shortage perceived by households at 1: 1 is serious. Adaptation efficacy and adaptation cost are both high, but perceived self-efficacy is at the medium level; (2) there is a significant positive correlation between water scarcity risk perception and adaptive efficacy perception and adaptation cost perception, which is negatively correlated with self-efficacy perception, but not significant; (3) the diversification index of adaptation strategies of farmers reached 2.80, and there was a significant positive correlation between the index of adaptation strategy diversification, the perception of severity of water shortage, the perception of adaptation efficacy, the perception of adaptation cost and self-efficacy; (4) with the increase of risk perception and adaptive efficacy perception, the probability of farmers' first choice contractile strategy increases, but with the increase of self-efficacy perception, the probability of farmers' preferred contractile strategy decreases. Finally. The countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the adaptability of farmers and the problems to be paid more attention to in the future are put forward.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41361106;4147116) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-11-0910) 甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目资助
【分类号】：F323.213
【正文快照】： 人类如何适应环境变化已成为全社会普遍关注的话题,全球变化的四大科学计划——世界气候研究计划(WCRP)、国际全球环境变化人文因素计划(IHDP)、国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)和国际生物多样性计划(DIVERSITAS)都将科学地适应未来环境变化作为人类社会保持可持续发展的重要准则[1]

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