黔中水利枢纽工程区域水资源演变规律及水资源配置研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 23:02

本文关键词：黔中水利枢纽工程区域水资源演变规律及水资源配置研究　出处：《天津大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黔中地区位于贵州省中部,区位优势突出,是贵州省经济社会发展核心地带。近几十年来,随着经济社会发展步伐的加快,黔中地区水资源供需矛盾问题日渐凸显,资源型缺水、工程性缺水并重,周期性和规律性出现的缺水严重限制当地农业发展。根据国际公认的缺水标准,黔中灌区属于用水紧张地区;由于受持续性缺水影响,贵阳、安顺等重点城区也已列入严重缺水地区,经济社会发展、居民生活保障和生态环境质量均受到影响。因此,解决水资源问题成为黔中地区发展的首要任务。黔中水利枢纽工程的建成,对于缓解黔中地区水资源严重短缺、优化水资源管理和改善生态环境具有重大战略性意义。由于工程量巨大,工程涉及面广、规模大、影响地区众多、建设管理十分复杂,在工程建设合理性论证过程及工程建成后的运行管理中存在一系列技术难题,如水资源调度安全性评估、水资源优化配置等问题,均需作进一步研究和论证。论文以实现黔中地区水资源可持续利用为研究目的,在明确研究区域特点及水资源利用存在的问题基础上,对水源区水资源演变规律进行深入探讨分析,利用年径流系数等指标评价了水库建设运行等人类活动对区域水资源演变造成的影响;结合研究区降水长系列资料,运用概率统计法和Copula联合分布函数分别对水源区和受水区进行丰枯遭遇分析;针对黔中岩溶地貌广布的特征,构建了岩溶区水文模型,模拟地表来水情况,模型为区域水资源量计算提供了科学模型计算方法;建立受水区水资源优化配置模型,设置不同调水方案对进行黔中受水区不同规划水平年进行水资源优化配置,评估黔中水利枢纽工程建设前后水资源盈缺状况,进一步为区域水资源合理利用和提高水资源利用率提供科学依据。研究取得的成果和结论如下:(1)对三岔河上游近50年历史年降水量、年蒸发量、年平均径流等水文序列进行趋势性分析、突变性分析和周期性检验发现,各水文序列均未出现显著的趋势变化。总体上,年降水量增加、年蒸发量减少,但年平均流量呈逐年减少趋势。通过分析流域内水库建设运行资料与水文序列趋势变化对应关系,发现水库工程的建设运行对三岔河流域径流变化有着必然的关系,尤其是大型水库工程的建设对径流量削减作用明显,并对减少下游地区洪水发生概率有一定贡献。(2)基于Copula函数方法和统计方法,分别构建水源区和珠江、长江两个受水区降水丰枯遭遇模型。分析发现,在年时间尺度上,调水有利的组合概率均在69%以上,可保证工程效益的发挥;水源区和长江流域受水区的调水有利概率稍大于珠江流域受水区;汛期的调水有利概率大于非汛期。(3)构建了适用于黔中岩溶山区的水文模型,对岩溶地下水系统复杂的岩溶地区水量进行模拟计算。在蓄满产流的基础上嵌入了多重线性水库,线性水库以并联和串联混合形式,客观描述了岩溶山区裂隙水和地下水循环过程;汇流方法采用滞时演算法,减小了洪峰模拟误差;模型参数优化采用考虑拥挤度的算法多目标粒子群算法MOPSO优化参数,模拟效果更好,证明模型适用于黔中岩溶山区水文计算和无资料地区水库来水长系列计算。(4)建立受水区黔中地区水资源配置模型,对黔中灌区及贵阳、安顺市区等单元水资源供需平衡分析。模型构建过程中考虑不同类型供水水源优先关系,并在各模块中设定相应约束,从空间、时间、用户间三个层面控制配置顺序,根据不同来水典型年设置不同的情景方案,分析近期、远期规划水平年黔中地区水资源供需平衡结果发现,黔中水利枢纽工程的建设可解决贵阳、安顺市区缺水问题,很大程度上缓解灌区用水压力;同时,外调水的优先利用对于黔中地区地下水位回升和维持生态环境稳定有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Guizhou is located in central Guizhou Province, location advantages, economic and social development of Guizhou province is the core area. In recent years, with the accelerated pace of economic and social development, the contradiction between water supply and demand problems in Guizhou area highlights the growing shortage of resources and engineering water shortage, water cycle and the regularity of the emergence of severe restrictions the local agricultural development. According to the international standard of Guizhou belongs to water, irrigation water stressed areas; due to persistent shortage of water, Guiyang, Anshun and other key areas have also been included in the area of serious water shortage, economic and social development, residents living security and ecological environment quality are affected. Therefore, to solve the problem of water resources has become the primary task of development Guizhou. Water conservancy project in Guizhou Guizhou built to alleviate the serious shortage of water resources, with heavy war optimized management of water resources and improve the ecological environment A little of significance. Due to a huge amount of engineering, the project covers a wide range, large scale, many affected areas, construction management is very complicated, there are a series of technical problems in the management of the project construction process and the rationality of the project after the completion of the water resources, such as scheduling safety assessment, issues such as the allocation of water resources are required for optimization. Further research and demonstration. The paper in order to achieve the sustainable utilization of water resources in Guizhou area for research purposes, research in the clear regional characteristics and utilization of water resources based on the existing problems of water resources, water source area evolution probe further into the analysis, using the index of annual runoff coefficient to evaluate the reservoir construction operation caused by the evolution of human activities the impact on regional water resources; combined with the study area precipitation in a long series of data, using statistical method and Copula distribution function were abundant in source area and water receiving area suffered Analysis; according to the characteristics of karst in Guizhou is widely distributed, constructed karst hydrological model, simulation of surface runoff, the scientific calculation method provides a computational model for regional water resources; the establishment of a model of optimal allocation of water resources, set up different water transfer schemes in Guizhou area in different planning years optimal allocation of water resources, evaluation of Guizhou before and after the water conservancy project construction of water resources deficit, further for the regional water resource utilization and improve the utilization rate of water resources to provide a scientific basis. The research results and conclusions are as follows: (1) the three Chahe upstream for nearly 50 years, annual precipitation, annual evaporation. The average annual runoff hydrological sequence trend analysis, mutation analysis and periodic inspection found that there were no significant changes in the trend of the hydrological sequence. On the whole, the annual precipitation increased, annual evaporation decreased, but The annual average flow rate decreased year by year. By changing the corresponding relationship of basin construction and operation data and trend, find the construction and operation of the reservoir project has the inevitable relation to the runoff three Chahe watershed changes, especially the construction of large reservoir on the runoff reduction effect, and to reduce the probability of occurrence of floods in the lower reaches of there is a certain contribution. (2) the Copula function method and statistical method based on the constructed water source area and the Pearl River, the Yangtze River two receiving precipitation runoff encountering model. Analysis shows that, in the time scale, the probability of water diversion favorable combination of above 69%, can ensure project efficiency; water source area and the Yangtze River the water diversion basin favorable area is slightly larger than the probability of the Pearl River Basin water diversion area; flood season than in non flood season favorable probability. (3) constructed the model for water in Guizhou karst mountain area, the The complex system of karst groundwater in karst area of water was simulated. Based on the runoff on the embedded multi linear reservoir, linear reservoir in parallel and series hybrid form, an objective description of the fissure water and groundwater circulation process in karst mountainous areas; using the method of bus delay algorithm, reduces the flood simulation error; using model parameters optimization of congestion algorithm multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm for MOPSO parameters, simulation results proved that the model is better, suitable for hydrology and karst mountain areas of Central Guizhou region without data calculation and long series of reservoir inflow calculation. (4) the establishment of the model of water resources allocation of water area in Guizhou, Guizhou and Guiyang Irrigation District, water supply and demand balance analysis resources in Anshun city and other units. Different types of water supply priority considering building the process model, and set the corresponding constraints in each module from space, time, user Three levels of control allocation in order, according to the different inflow scenarios typical settings, different levels of analysis in the near future, long-term planning in Guizhou area water resources supply and demand balance results, the construction of water conservancy project in Guizhou can be settled in Guiyang, Anshun urban water shortage, largely alleviate the pressure of irrigation water; at the same time, water transfer the priority for using the underground water level Guizhou recovery and maintain the ecological environment have an important significance.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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