基于排队理论的随机规划水资源管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 11:03

本文关键词：基于排队理论的随机规划水资源管理研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水资源作为一种重要的自然资源,不仅关系着地球万物的生存,也与人类工业、农业等活动以及人类的进一步发展密切相关。过去几十年中,人类经济和社会发展十分迅速,导致社会各部门需要越来越多的水,工业、农业、城市等各部门需水量日益增加。本文在不确定性存在的条件下,研究区域水量分配问题,借鉴前人的研究成果,首次将模糊排队理论与随机二次规划方法相结合,开发了基于排队理论的随机二次规划模型并将其应用到水资源系统的规划中,为制定合理的水资源分配方案提供决策支持。该方法通过考虑水资源分配过程中存在的排队问题,完善了随机规划方法,不仅能通过区间、随机、模糊方法处理系统的不确定性,而且能反映排队问题在水资源优化配置中对水量分配方案和系统效益的影响。模型被应用于水资源规划案例中,通过α-cut方法,得到不同a条件下、不同来水情景的水量分配方案,结果表明,考虑排队问题在水资源分配中的影响,能给管理者提供更多有效的决策信息,帮助其制定相应的政策,对水资源进行更加合理的分配。
[Abstract]:The water resource is a kind of important natural resources, not only the relationship between the earth and human survival, is closely related to industrial, agricultural and other activities as well as the further development of human beings. In the past decades, the human economic and social development is very rapid, resulting in all sectors of society need more and more water, industry, agriculture, and other city Department of water demand is increasing. The uncertainty of the presence of regional water distribution problems, drawing on previous research results, for the first time, the fuzzy queuing theory and stochastic two planning method combining developed based on stochastic programming model two queuing theory and its application to water resources system planning and provide decision support for water resources allocation scheme is reasonable. The method considers the queuing problems of water resources allocation in the process of the improved stochastic programming method, not only through the Interval, random fuzzy method, the uncertainty of the system, but also can reflect the queuing problem in the optimal allocation of water resources for water allocation and benefit of the system. The influence of the model is applied to the case of water resources planning, through a -cut method, obtained under different a conditions, different scenarios of inflow water allocation results. That, considering the influence of queuing problems in the distribution of water resources, can give managers more effective decision-making information, help them formulate corresponding policies, to a more reasonable distribution of water resources.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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