基于水足迹的京津冀水资源合理配置研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 21:54

本文关键词：基于水足迹的京津冀水资源合理配置研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：京津冀位于中国资源型缺水地区,以不足全国的0.7%的水资源,承载着全国约8%的人口、6%的粮食生产和10%的GDP,水资源问题制约着京津冀地区可持续发展。本研究在核算了1994-2013年京津冀地区农业、工业、生活、生态环境和虚拟水贸易五个部门水足迹基础上,建立了水资源优化配置系统动力学模型,然后通过四种产业政策情景仿真分析,找出水资源优化配置方案,最后通过水分生产力排名,确定产业调整的种类与数量,促进京津冀地区水资源供需平衡。主要工作与贡献体现在以下三点:(1)采用CROPWAT模型和用水定额法核算出京津冀地区水足迹。区域整体用水量发生颠覆性变化,水足迹总量为1770×108m3,是该地区实体用水的7倍,人均水足迹为1383 m3/yr,是人均实体用水的5倍。地区之间差距巨大,河北省水足迹为1523×108m3,北京市(138×108m3),天津市(108×108m3),分别是三地实体水用量的8倍、4倍和5倍;人均水足迹河北省为2226 m3/yr,在全国31个省份中排名第二位,天津市(999 m3/yr)和北京市(941 m3/yr)低于中国平均水足迹值。产业之间差异巨大,农业用水比例为75.4%,生态环境用水(18.3%),其中,肉类、禽蛋类和粮食类产品水足迹是农业用水主体;植树造林用水为生态环境部门主体。(2)构建了基于水足迹的京津冀地区水资源配置系统动力学模型。模型划分为六个子系统,即供水子系统、农业子系统、工业子系统、生活子系统、生态环境子系统和经济子系统,涉及70个变量,模型通过了系统一致性检验、历史数据检验和灵敏度检验,能够反映出京津冀地区水资源配置时空变化规律。(3)农产品总量下降50%情景是最优水资源配置方案。该情景下,2030年京津冀地区可实现水资源供需平衡,虚拟水贸易在该地区水资源供应中占据重要地位,农业部门用水下降8%,可节约用水总量为791×108m3。综上,产业结构调整政策建议为:(1)预测期内畜产品实现进口50%为合理目标;(2)粮食产品在考虑地区安全情况下,通过改良灌溉方式实现节约用水85%;(3)棉花产品应逐步退出本地区,实现全部进口;(4)改进植树造林树种结构,模拟自然林生长环境,减少水足迹。
[Abstract]:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is located in China's resource-based water shortage area, with less than 0.7% of the country's water resources, carrying about 8% of the population of China's grain production and 10% of the GDP. The problem of water resources restricts the sustainable development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study calculates the agriculture, industry and life of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 1994 to 2013. On the basis of ecological environment and water footprint of virtual water trade, the dynamic model of water resources optimal allocation system is established, and then through the simulation analysis of four industrial policy scenarios, the optimal allocation scheme of water resources is found. Finally, through the ranking of water productivity, the category and quantity of industrial adjustment are determined. To promote the balance of water resources supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main work and contribution are as follows: 1). The CROPWAT model and the water quota method were used to calculate the water footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The total water footprint is 1770 脳 108m3, which is 7 times of that of the real water in this area. The per capita water footprint is 1383 m3 / yrand 5 times that of the per capita solid water. The water footprint of Hebei Province is 1523 脳 108m3, that of Beijing is 138 脳 108m3, and that of Tianjin is 108 脳 108m3, which is 8 times and 5 times as much as that of solid water in the three places. Hebei Province has a per capita water footprint of 2226 m3 / yr. it ranks second among the 31 provinces in the country. Tianjin (999m3 / yr) and Beijing (941m3 / yr) are lower than China's average water footprint. There is a huge difference between industries, the ratio of agricultural water use is 75.4%. The water footprint of meat, poultry, eggs and grain products is the main body of agricultural water use. The dynamic model of water resources allocation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on water footprint was constructed. The model was divided into six subsystems, that is, water supply subsystem and agricultural subsystem. The industrial subsystem, the life subsystem, the ecological environment subsystem and the economic subsystem, involving 70 variables, the model has passed the system consistency test, the historical data test and the sensitivity test. It can reflect the temporal and spatial variation of water resources allocation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In 2030, water supply and demand balance could be achieved in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Virtual water trade played an important role in water supply, and water consumption in agricultural sector decreased by 8%. The total amount of water saved is 791 脳 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. In summary, the industrial structure adjustment policy suggests that the reasonable target is to realize the import of 50% animal products in the forecast period. (2) under the consideration of regional safety, grain products can save 85% of water by improving irrigation method; Cotton products should be gradually withdrawn from the region to achieve full import; (4) improve the structure of afforestation tree species, simulate the growth environment of natural forest and reduce the water footprint.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4

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