基于投影寻踪-物元可拓模型的区域水资源承载力评价

发布时间：2018-01-10 00:23

  本文关键词：基于投影寻踪-物元可拓模型的区域水资源承载力评价　出处：《节水灌溉》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 区域水资源 承载能力 投影寻踪法 物元可拓模型 评价指标体系

【摘要】：为了评价宝鸡地区近年来的水资源承载力状况,指导该地区水资源的可持续开发利用,将投影寻踪法和物元可拓理论进行结合,建立水资源承载力物元可拓模型,利用投影寻踪法计算指标权重,消除主观判断对评价结果造成的偏差。选取4个年份作为水平年序列对宝鸡地区水资源承载力进行评价,采用局部灵敏度分析方法对评价结果进行了准确性验证。结果显示:宝鸡地区2000年水资源承载力处于强无压力状态向平衡状态过渡的阶段(Ⅱ级),2005和2015年处于平衡状态(Ⅲ级),2010年处于弱压力转态(Ⅳ级)。随着经济社会的进一步发展,应结合水资源承载力评价结果,制定科学合理的水资源利用方案,促进水资源与经济社会协调健康发展。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Baoji area in recent years and to guide the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in this area, the projection pursuit method and matter-element extension theory are combined. The matter-element extension model of water resources carrying capacity is established, and the index weight is calculated by projection pursuit method. To eliminate the deviation caused by subjective judgment on the evaluation results. 4 years were selected as horizontal year series to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Baoji area. The method of local sensitivity analysis was used to verify the accuracy of the evaluation results. The results showed that in 2000 the water resources carrying capacity in Baoji area was in the stage of transition from strong pressure free state to equilibrium state (stage 鈪，

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