基于SWAT模型的洮儿河流域水资源演变情势分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 00:00

本文关键词：基于SWAT模型的洮儿河流域水资源演变情势分析　出处：《大连理工大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化对流域水文水资源的影响是当前水资源演变规律领域研究的两大课题。当前世界各地水资源都发生了巨大的变化,极端天气频繁,水旱灾害严重。气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化是两个主要的水文驱动因子。因此分析气候变化及土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响,对于水资源演变规律的把握以及实现水资源可持续利用有着重大意义。对于东北地区洮儿河流域,水文水资源的变化直接关系到该地区土地利用格局调整、湿地保护、河库连通工程、区域社会经济发展等。因此本文以SWAT分布式水文模型为研究手段,分别预测了未来30年及80年内,洮儿河流域的水资源发展趋势。分析了近30年来耕地、林地、草地等主要土地利用类型的变化情况以及对流域径流深的贡献系数,并分析了近些年土地利用变化对水资源的影响。为该地区水资源的合理配置以及土地利用结构的调整提供参考依据。本文的研究成果如下：(1)通过洮儿河流域SWAT模型的构建、模拟以及对模拟结果的分析,验证了SWAT模型在洮儿河流域有较好的模拟精度,可用于该地区的径流模拟。(2)采用已有洮儿河流域未来气候分析预测的研究结果,预测未来30年(2020-2050年)内洮儿河流域的水资源情况。以及基于CMIP5模式中Hadgem2_ AO模型(RCP4.5情景和RCP8.5情景)提供的气象数据,预测洮儿河流域未来80年(2020-2100年)内的水文水资源变化情况。结果表明,未来30年及80年内,洮儿河未来径流量相对于基准期呈现着增加趋势。(3)分析了洮儿河流域近20年土地利用／覆被的变化情况,以及研究了三种主要土地利用类型对于流域径流深的贡献系数以及土地利用变化对水资源的影响。结果显示：在洮儿河流域,耕地对于径流的形成起抑制作用。林地对于径流的形成起促进作用。对于草地,在上游山区,草地对于径流形成起促进作用,而中下游平原地区,草地对于径流的形成就起到了抑制作用。近20年来,土地利用类型的变化也引起了农业需水的增加,加剧了水资源的供需矛盾。
[Abstract]:Climate change and land use / cover change impact on hydrology and water resources in the basin is the two largest research subject in the field of water resources. The evolution of the current water resources around the world have undergone tremendous changes, frequent extreme weather, severe floods and droughts. Climate change and land use / land cover change is one of the two major hydrological the driving factor. So analysis of the impact of climate change and land use change on hydrology and water resources, is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources evolution hold and realize the water resources for the Tao'er River Basin in Northeast China, the change of water resources in Wenshui is directly related to the adjustment of the land use pattern, wetland protection, river bank communication engineering, regional social and economic development. Therefore, SWAT distributed hydrological model as the research method, forecast the next 30 years and 80 years, the Tao'er River Basin Water The development trend of forest resources. In recent 30 years, cultivated land, grassland and other major land use changes and types of contribution coefficient of runoff depth, and analyzed the influence of land use change on water resources in recent years. For the rational allocation of water resources in the area and land use structure adjustment to provide reference. The results of this study are as follows: (1) by constructing SWAT Tao'er river basin model, simulation and analysis of simulation results, verify the SWAT model has good simulation accuracy in Tao'er River Basin, the area can be used for runoff simulation. (2) the use of the existing Tao'er River Basin in the future climate analysis results the prediction, forecast for the next 30 years (2020-2050 years) the water resources situation in Tao'er River Basin. Based on the CMIP5 model and Hadgem2_ AO model (RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenarios) meteorological data, the prediction of Taoer River Domain of the next 80 years (2020-2100 years) changes in hydrology and water resources situation. The results show that the next 30 years and 80 years in the future, the Tao'er river runoff relative to the baseline period showed a increasing trend. (3) analyzed the Tao'er River Basin in recent 20 years of land use / cover change, and research the three main types of land use for the contribution coefficient of runoff depth and land use change impact on water resources. The results showed that: in the Tao'er River Basin, the farmland runoff forming inhibited. The woodland runoff forming play an important role. For in the upper reaches of the mountains, grassland, grassland to promote the formation of runoff but, in the middle and lower reaches of the plain area, grassland for runoff forming played inhibition. Over the past 20 years, the change of land use type also caused the increase of agricultural water demand, exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213

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