污水资源化及产业用水结构调整对西北地区水资源承载力的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 01:11

本文关键词：污水资源化及产业用水结构调整对西北地区水资源承载力的影响研究　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：西北地区在我国水资源短缺问题中表现最为突出，无论是先天的水资源供给量不足，还是不均衡发展引起尖锐的水资源供需矛盾，都严重制约了西北地区社会经济的可持续发展。然而，西北地区继续开发水资源的潜力已不大，跨区调水须在国家统筹计划下以大规模工程来考虑，相对而言，污水资源化及产业用水结构调整是解决西北地区水资源不足问题和提高水资源承载力的有效途径，同时符合未来西部大开发、区域社会经济可持续发展的目标。通过追踪大量的国内外有关污水资源化及产业用水结构调整对水资源承载力影响研究的文献，发现系统动力学方法在水资源承载力评价中运用成熟；关于污水资源化对水资源承载力影响的研究缺少定量分析；产业用水结构调整对水资源承载力影响的研究侧重水资源约束下产业结构调整的选择；将两者结合起来分析对水资源承载力影响的研究更是不多。因此，本文利用污水资源化及产业用水结构调整两个关键因素，通过系统动力学方法定量分析对西北地区水资源承载力的影响程度，为西北地区有效提高水资源承载力提供相应对策和建议。 (1)利用系统动力学原理进行污水资源化对水资源承载力影响的三个反馈回路分析，模拟评价污水资源化对西北地区水资源承载力的影响程度。结果显示污水资源化能力不变时，水资源未来可承载人口及经济规模的能力是很弱的；当污水资源化能力相关参数提高10%时，水资源未来可承载的人口及经济规模可提高20%；同时说明污水资源化能力适度提高对水资源承载力提高作用显著。 (2)通过西北地区三大产业万元GDP用水量的趋势分析，得出西北地区第一、二、三产业最佳用水比例为0.779:0.195:0.266。结果显示采用此用水比例，水资源不仅可以承载目前的经济规模，而且可达到最大节水量191.361×108m3；但采用其它产业用水比例不是水资源承载经济规模的能力下降，就是节水效果达不到最佳。 (3)将污水资源化能力提高10%同时采用三大产业最佳用水比例0.779:0.195:0.266，通过相关变量和参数的选择、基本约束条件的设计，运用系统动力学模拟分析两个因素同时作用对水资源承载力的影响情况。结果显示2020年水资源可承载的人口及经济规模比现状水平下提高近30%，，各指标值接近规划目标值，而且工业增加值的提高幅度最大；同时反映出污水资源化能力提高对水资源承载力的影响程度相对大于产业用水结构调整对水资源承载力的影响程度。
[Abstract]:In the northwest area , the problems of water resources shortage in China are the most prominent , whether the supply amount of water resources in the first day is insufficient or the uneven development causes acute water resources supply and demand contradiction , which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the social economy in the northwest area . However , the development of water resources in the northwest area has not been large . However , the adjustment of water resources and industrial water use in the northwest area is an effective way to solve the problem of water resources shortage in the northwest area and to improve the water resources carrying capacity , and meet the goal of sustainable development of the western region in the future and the sustainable development of the regional socio - economic development . It is found that the system dynamics method is mature in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity by tracing a large number of domestic and foreign literatures about the influence of wastewater reclamation and industrial water structure adjustment on water resources carrying capacity . ( 1 ) Based on the analysis of three feedback loops of the effect of wastewater reclamation on the water resources carrying capacity , the influence degree of wastewater reclamation on the water resources carrying capacity in the Northwest China is simulated . The results show that the capacity of water resources to carry the population and economic scale is very weak when the resource capacity of the wastewater is unchanged ; when the related parameters of the wastewater reclamation capacity are increased by 10 % , the population and economic scale of the water resources in the future can be increased by 20 % ; meanwhile , the improvement of the water resource capacity is obvious . ( 2 ) According to the trend analysis of the water consumption of the three industries in the Northwest China , the optimum water consumption ratio of the first , second and third industries in the Northwest China is 0.779 : 0.195 : 0.266 . The results show that the water resources can not only carry the present economic scale , but also can reach the maximum water saving capacity of 191.361 脳 108m3 , but the water saving effect is not the best . ( 3 ) The capacity of wastewater reclamation is increased by 10 % , and the optimum water consumption ratio of three industries is 0.779 : 0.195 : 0.266 . The influence of two factors on the water resources carrying capacity is analyzed by the selection of relevant variables and parameters . The results show that the population and economic scale of the water resources can be increased by nearly 30 % compared with the current situation level .

【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X703;TV213.4

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