湖北省城市化与耕地资源变化的协调性研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 20:05

本文关键词： 协调城市化耕地资源变化可持续湖北省　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对处于快速城市化阶段的湖北来说，要想实现“一要吃饭，二要建设，兼顾生态”的可持续目标，必须正确认识和处理城市化与耕地资源变化间的矛盾。本文在对湖北省城市化水平做出科学测度的基础上，运用协调度模型分析湖北城市化与耕地资源变化的关系，同时根据城市定位和经济发展趋势，预测了2015年和2020年湖北省城市化与耕地资源变化的协调度。在此基础上，提出了如何缓解和协同城市化进程的快速发展和耕地资源变化矛盾的政策建议。首先，运用复合指标法对全省的城市化水平做出了测算，分别从数量、质量、生态三方面详细介绍了全省的耕地资源状况。在此基础上利用计量分析法探究了1978-2012年湖北省城市化和耕地数量变化的关系，结果表明，二者呈明显的负相关关系，且在众多驱动因素中，城市化对耕地数量变化的影响最大。其次，基于协调度模型，研究湖北省城市化和耕地资源变化的关系，发现二者的协调度较低，耕地资源仅能勉强保持在承载力阈值内，即耕地资源的“牺牲”带来了城市化的发展。协调度值上升的年份，耕地增加或减少幅度相对较小，反之亦然。同时根据湖北省城市定位和经济发展趋势，对2015年和2020年的城市化水平、耕地资源数量及二者间的协调度做出了预测。综合表明，湖北省城市化发展与耕地数量变化呈明显的负相关关系，且城市化水平的提高是以牺牲耕地资源为代价的。在不考虑政策调整的情况下，二者间的不协调状态在可预见的时间里还将长期存在。因此，湖北政府应积极从城市化、耕地两方面入手，优化资源配置，集约节约使用每一寸耕地，，缓解人地矛盾，协调城市化和耕地资源变化间的矛盾，从而实现湖北社会经济各方面的永续发展。
[Abstract]:For Hubei, which is in the stage of rapid urbanization, it is necessary to achieve the sustainable goal of "one must eat, the other must build and take into account the ecology". It is necessary to correctly understand and deal with the contradiction between urbanization and the change of cultivated land resources. This paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resource changes in Hubei Province by using the coordination degree model. At the same time, according to the city orientation and the trend of economic development. The degree of coordination between urbanization and cultivated land resource changes in Hubei Province in 2015 and 2020 was predicted. Some policy suggestions on how to mitigate and coordinate the rapid development of urbanization and the change of cultivated land resources are put forward. First of all, the use of composite indicators to measure the level of urbanization in the province, respectively from the quantity and quality. The relationship between urbanization and cultivated land quantity change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2012 was explored by using econometric analysis method. The results showed that the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land quantity change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2012 was discussed in detail. Among the many driving factors, urbanization has the greatest influence on the change of cultivated land quantity. Secondly, based on the coordination degree model, the relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resource changes in Hubei Province is studied. It is found that the coordination degree between the two is low, and the cultivated land resources can only barely be kept within the threshold of carrying capacity. That is, the "sacrifice" of cultivated land resources has brought about the development of urbanization. In the year of the increase of coordination degree, the increase or decrease of cultivated land is relatively small, and vice versa. At the same time, according to the urban orientation and economic development trend of Hubei Province. The urbanization level of 2015 and 2020, the quantity of cultivated land resources and the degree of coordination between them are forecasted. The results show that the urbanization development of Hubei Province is negatively related to the change of cultivated land quantity, and the increase of urbanization level is at the expense of cultivated land resources. Therefore, the Hubei government should actively start with urbanization and cultivated land, optimize the allocation of resources and economize the use of every inch of cultivated land. To alleviate the contradiction between man and land, to coordinate the contradiction between urbanization and the change of cultivated land resources, so as to realize the sustainable development of all aspects of social economy in Hubei.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27;F323.211

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