天津市水资源可持续利用的系统动力学研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 19:05

本文关键词： 水资源可持续利用系统动力学仿真模拟　出处：《北京林业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水资源是人类生存与社会经济发展必不可少的重要资源,近几年天津市水量减少与水质恶化现象日益严重,本市水资源总量不足以承担全市用水需求,对外调水的依赖性日益增大。本文针对这一现状,分析其用水特点,使用系统动力学软件Vensim,建立2006年到2020年的天津市水资源可持续利用的模型。模型包括人口、经济、生态环境、水资源4个密切相关的子系统。运行模型得到预测结果,结果显示2020年天津市总需水量将达到40.93亿m3,水资源供需缺额为7.617亿m3,生活、农业、工业、三产、生态需水量分别占总需水量的13%、25%、44%、6%、12%,工业取代农业成为需水最多的产业。通过选取决策变量并改变其数值,设计五种不同的发展方案：维持现状型、节水型、调整产业结构型、开源型与综合型,分别模拟它们的水资源利用趋势,通过分析对比得出水资源可持续利用的最优方案是综合型,它与维持现状型相比,总需水量减少了6.22亿m3,总供水量增加了1.56亿m3,供水量能够满足用水需求。结合模拟结果给出建议：节约用水,推广节水器具与节水技术,适当提高水价；调整产业结构；提高非传统水源的利用率,提高海水淡化与污水处理技术,充分利用雨水；加强管理规划。有助于缓解供水压力,加快实现水资源的可持续利用,对其它资源型缺水城市也有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Water resource is an indispensable resource for human survival and social and economic development. In recent years, the water quantity in Tianjin is decreasing and the water quality is worsening day by day. The total amount of water resources in Tianjin is not enough to meet the water demand of the whole city. The dependence of external water transfer is increasing day by day. In view of this situation, this paper analyzes the characteristics of water use and establishes the sustainable utilization model of water resources in Tianjin from 2006 to 2020 by using the system dynamics software Vensim. the models include population, economy, and so on. In 2020, the total water demand of Tianjin will reach four billion ninety-three million m3, and the shortage of water supply and demand will be 761.7 million m3. Ecological water demand accounts for 13% of the total water demand respectively. Industry replaces agriculture as the industry that needs the most water. By selecting decision variables and changing their values, five different development schemes are designed: maintaining the status quo, saving water, and adjusting the industrial structure. By analyzing and comparing the trend of water resources utilization, it is concluded that the optimal scheme of sustainable utilization of water resources is comprehensive, which is compared with that of maintaining the status quo. The total water demand is reduced by 622 million m3, the total water supply is increased by 156 million m3, and the water supply can meet the water demand. Based on the simulation results, some suggestions are given: saving water, popularizing water-saving apparatus and water-saving technology, raising water price appropriately, adjusting industrial structure; To improve the utilization rate of non-traditional water sources, to improve desalination and sewage treatment technologies, to make full use of Rain Water; to strengthen management planning; to help alleviate the pressure of water supply and to accelerate the realization of sustainable use of water resources; It also has certain reference significance to other resource-type water-deficient cities.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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