“三条红线”约束下的钦州市水资源优化配置研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 23:17

本文关键词： 钦州市三条红线需水预测可供水量水资源优化配置 gamultiobj函数　出处：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水资源既是基础资源又是战略资源,是人类赖以生存和发展的基本条件。水资源供需矛盾是影响社会稳定发展的重要问题之一,水资源优化配置是解决水资源供需矛盾的有效途径。随着2011年中央一号文件中最严格水资源管理制度的出台,水资源的管理与利用进入了一个新的阶段,水资源优化配置研究也应符合"三条红线"的约束要求。本文以钦州市为研究对象,首先分析了"三条红线"与水资源优化配置的关系,将"三条红线"的约束指标编入模型的约束条件中,构建了"三条红线"约束下的钦州市多目标水资源优化配置模型;基于用水效率控制红线对钦州市进行需水量预测分析,采用指标分析与定额法分析各用水部门需水量,得到高、低两种方案下、三种来水频率下,2020年、2030年的钦州市需水量预测成果;依据钦州市实际水利工程信息进行现状年可供水量计算,依据钦州市水利工程规划资料预测可供水量的增加量,其中,大、中型水利工程现状可供水量采用长系列调节演算,缺乏资料小型水利工程进行简化计算;对钦州市水资源采取三种方案进行优化配置,在分析了钦州市水资源供需平衡后,采用基于控制精英策略多目标遗传算法的gamultiobj函数求解模型。共得到三种方案下,三种来水频率下,2020年、2030年共17组水资源优化配置结果。结果表明:钦州市以现状用水增长趋势不符合"三条红线"的约束要求,区域用水压力和水环境压力将加大。最后本文针对钦州市水资源问题提出了四点对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Water resources are not only the basic resources but also the strategic resources and the basic conditions for the survival and development of human beings. The contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is one of the important problems affecting the stable development of the society. Optimal allocation of water resources is an effective way to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. With the introduction of the strictest water resources management system in 2011, the management and utilization of water resources has entered a new stage. The research on optimal allocation of water resources should also meet the restriction requirements of "three red lines". Taking Qinzhou City as the research object, this paper first analyzes the relationship between the "three red lines" and the optimal allocation of water resources. The constraint index of "three red lines" is incorporated into the constraint conditions of the model, and a multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model of Qinzhou City under the constraint of "three red lines" is constructed, and the water demand prediction and analysis based on the red line of water efficiency control are carried out in Qinzhou City. Using the index analysis and quota method to analyze the water demand of various water use departments, the forecast results of water demand of Qinzhou City on 2020 and 2030 were obtained under the two schemes of high and low, and three kinds of water coming frequency. According to the actual water conservancy engineering information in Qinzhou city, the annual available water supply is calculated, and the increase of the available water supply is predicted according to the planning data of Qinzhou water conservancy project. Among them, the current available water supply of large and medium water conservancy projects is calculated by a long series of adjustment calculations. Lack of data for simplified calculation of small water conservancy projects, optimal allocation of water resources in Qinzhou, and analysis of the balance between supply and demand of water resources in Qinzhou, The gamultiobj function model based on multi-objective genetic algorithm of control elite strategy is used to solve the model. On 2020 and 2030, there were 17 groups of optimal allocation results of water resources under three kinds of water frequency. The results showed that the increasing trend of water use in Qinzhou did not meet the restriction requirement of "three red lines". Regional water pressure and water environment pressure will be increased. Finally, this paper puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions for water resources problems in Qinzhou City.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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