苏州市水资源脆弱性研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 01:27

本文选题：水资源脆弱性　切入点：PSR模型　出处：《苏州科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以后,苏州经济快速发展,城镇化水平不断提高,城镇人口急剧增多,对水资源的需求也越来越大。经济高速发展的同时,城市基础配套设施建设速度并未跟上,污水处理设施不够完善导致污水无法得到有效处理,水质严重污染加剧了水量短缺,严重阻碍了城市和地区的可持续发展,并被国家列为水质性缺水城市之一。水资源脆弱性研究是水环境风险管理中重要的一部分,科学评估苏州市水资源脆弱性对于有效管理水环境风险、完善管理政策,促进苏州市全面协调可持续发展均具有积极作用。以国内外有关水资源脆弱性的研究成果为基础,制定研究内容并明确研究思路,选择合适的评价方法对苏州市水资源展开研究。通过查阅相关文献及资料,对苏州市经济、人口以及水资源状况作出初步判断,分析对该地区水资源脆弱性有着显著影响的因素。根据指标体系构建原则筛选出22个评价指标,基于“压力-状态-响应”概念模型(PSR)构建苏州市水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,采用变异系数法和改进熵值法组合确定各评价指标的权重,运用模糊物元法评价水资源脆弱性并利用综合指数法验证评价结果,通过计算各指标对水资源脆弱度的贡献率识别影响水资源脆弱性的主要因素。根据评价结果对苏州市水资源整体脆弱状况、脆弱原因以及2005~2015年脆弱性年际变化趋势进行评价分析,最后为政府提供有效的水资源管理建议。主要研究结论如下:(1)本文基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了苏州市水资源脆弱性评价指标体系,该体系中共包含22个评价指标。(2)运用模糊物元法评估2005~2015年苏州市水资源的脆弱性。水资源脆弱性共分为五个等级,分别为极其脆弱、严重脆弱、中等脆弱、比较脆弱和轻度脆弱。2005~2006年,水资源表现为极其脆弱;2007~2009年,水资源表现为严重脆弱;2010~2015年,水资源表现为比较脆弱。显然,这11年来苏州市水资源脆弱性逐渐下降,表明水资源状况也在不断好转,但仍然存在脆弱性。(3)通过采用综合指数法计算水资源脆弱度,检验模糊物元法的评价结果,两者对比结果基本一致,即苏州市水资源状况正在逐步好转,与实际情况相符,表明该指标体系适用于苏州市水资源脆弱性研究。(4)通过计算各指标对水资源脆弱性的贡献率,分析影响苏州市水资源脆弱性的主要因素。2005~2009年,苏州市水资源表现出非常强的脆弱性,主要源于RD经费支出水平较低、污染治理投入比例较小以及工业生产给水资源造成压力。随着政府对环境越来越重视,不断加大RD经费以及污染治理投入力度,在工业生产过程中提高了水资源的利用效率,减少生产废水的产生,同时加大对污水的治理力度,进而提高了水质达标率,降低了水资源脆弱性。2010~2015年,水资源脆弱性较低,由贡献率分析可知,影响该阶段水资源脆弱性的主要因素为人口因素、农业生产因素以及气候因素,其中包括人口密度、城镇人口比重、人均日生活用水量、农灌亩均用水量以及汛期降水比重(5~9月)等。(5)以苏州市水资源开发利用现状为基础,依据水资源脆弱性评价结果,结合压力-状态-响应模型,以实现水资源合理配置及高效利用为目标,探讨基于水资源脆弱性的苏州市水资源管理模式。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, the rapid development of Suzhou's economy, the increasing level of urbanization, the urban population increased rapidly, the demand for water resources is also growing. The rapid economic development, city infrastructure construction speed has not kept pace with the sewage treatment facilities are not perfect, resulting in water can not be effectively treated, serious water pollution exacerbated the water shortage that has seriously hindered the sustainable development of city and region, and was listed as one of the country's water shortage city. Water resources vulnerability research is an important part of water environment risk management, scientific assessment of vulnerability of water resources in Suzhou city for the effective management of water environment risk, improve the management policy, promote the coordinated and sustainable development of Suzhou the city has a positive role. At home and abroad related to water resource vulnerability research results as the foundation, making the research content and clear research ideas, choose The evaluation method is suitable to study the water resources in Suzhou city. By reviewing the relevant literature and data of Suzhou City, economy, population and water resources condition and make a preliminary judgment, analysis of factors of water resources in the area of vulnerability has a significant impact. According to the selected 22 evaluation indexes based on the principle of "pressure state response" conceptual model (PSR) to construct vulnerability evaluation index system of water resources in Suzhou City, using variation coefficient method and improved entropy method combined to determine the weight of each evaluation index, using the fuzzy matter-element method to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources and the method to verify the evaluation results of comprehensive index, by calculating the index of water resources vulnerability the contribution rate of recognition of main factors affecting the vulnerability of water resources. According to the results of the evaluation of water resources in Suzhou city overall vulnerability, vulnerability reason and 2005~2015 vulnerability interannual variation trend Potential evaluation and analysis, finally provide effective water resources management recommendations for the government. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) this paper based on pressure state response model (PSR) to construct the Suzhou city water resources vulnerability evaluation index system, the system contains 22 evaluation indexes. (2) using fuzzy matter-element method vulnerability assessment of Suzhou city in 2005~2015 water resources. Water resources vulnerability is divided into five levels, were extremely fragile, serious vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, fragile and mild fragile.2005~2006, water resources is extremely fragile; 2007~ 2009, the water resources is very serious; 2010~2015, water resources is relatively fragile. Obviously, Suzhou city water resources vulnerability gradually decreased over the past 11 years, showed that the situation of water resources has been improved, but still fragile. (3) by using the comprehensive index method to calculate the water resource vulnerability test mode Fuzzy matter-element method evaluation results, the comparison results are basically consistent, namely Suzhou city water resources situation is gradually improving, in line with the actual situation, it shows that the index system for Suzhou water resources vulnerability research. (4) by calculating the index of water resource vulnerability contribution rate, influence analysis of water resources Suzhou City, the vulnerability of the main factors in.2005~2009, the water resources of Suzhou City show is very fragile, mainly due to the expenditure level of RD funds is low, a smaller proportion of investment in pollution control and industrial production water pressure. Along with the government more and more attention to the environment, increasing RD funds and pollution control investment in the process of industrial production to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources, reduce the production of waste water, and increase the sewage treatment efforts, and improve the water quality compliance rate, reduce the vulnerability of water resources.2 010~2015, vulnerability of water resources is low, from the analysis of the contribution rate, the main factors which affect the stage of vulnerability of water resources for agricultural production factors and demographic factors, climatic factors, including population density, the proportion of urban population, per capita daily water consumption, agricultural irrigation water consumption and the proportion of precipitation per mu (5~9 months). (5) to the Suzhou city water resources development and utilization is based on the current situation, on the basis of water resources vulnerability assessment results, combined with the model of pressure state response, in order to achieve the rational allocation of water resources and efficiency as the goal, to explore based on the vulnerability of water resources of Suzhou city water resources management.

【学位授予单位】：苏州科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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