中国西北旱区农业水土资源利用情景潜力研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 21:28

本文选题：农业水土资源　切入点：匹配指数　出处：《自然资源学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：西北旱区水土资源供需矛盾突出,同时作为该区农业生产的瓶颈因素,决定该区经济社会生态可持续发展,因此有必要开展西北旱区农业水土资源相结合的空间情景潜力研究。论文采用水土资源匹配指数计算分析了西北旱区现状年(2010年)农业水土资源的匹配状况,采用农业水土资源利用潜力估算方法计算了西北旱区2020、2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5两种情景下的农业水土资源利用潜力,实现了西北旱区农业水土资源利用潜力的可视化表达。结果表明:2020和2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5排放情景下,相对于2010年,西北旱区各省2020和2030年的总农业水资源量和种植面积均减小。西北旱区6省份2020和2030年两种情景下整体综合效益和整体潜力值均为正,表明各省种植结构整体得到了优化。2020年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5情景下,西北旱区农业水土资源利用潜力分布范围分别在-0.10×10~4~0.83×10~4元/hm~2之间和-1.20×10~4~0.97×10~4元/hm~2之间;2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5情景下,农业水土资源利用潜力分布范围分别在-0.39×10~4~2.17×10~4元/hm~2之间和-0.36×10~4~1.66×10~4元/hm~2之间。
[Abstract]:The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in northwest arid region at the same time as the prominent bottleneck factors of agricultural production in the region, determine the region's economic and social sustainable development, the research space potential scenarios it is necessary to carry out the combination of agricultural soil and water resources in arid regions of Northwest China. The matching index calculated by the current year in northwest arid region of soil and water resources, agricultural water and soil conditions (2010) the potential of agricultural resources, utilization of water and land resources using agricultural water and soil resources utilization potential estimation method in arid regions of Northwest China 20202030 years RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 were calculated under two scenarios, the Northwest Agricultural Soil and water resources in the arid region of the potential visual expression. The results showed that: 2020 and 2030 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios, compared to 2010. The provinces in northwest arid region in 2020 and 2030 the total amount of water resources and agricultural acreage decrease. In arid regions of Northwest China in 6 provinces in 2020 and 2030 two The scenarios of overall efficiency and the overall potential values are positive, that the overall planting structure has been optimized in.2020 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios between agricultural soil and water resources in the arid region of northwest by the potential distribution were in the range between -0.10 * 10~4~0.83 * 10~4 and -1.20 * 10~4 ~0.97 /hm~2 * 10~4 /hm~2 2030 RCP yuan; 8.5 and 4.5 RCP scenarios between agricultural land and water resources utilization potential distribution were in the range between -0.39 * 10~4~2.17 * 10~4 * 10~4~1.66 * -0.36 /hm~2 yuan and 10~4 yuan /hm~2.

【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所农业部作物需水与调控重点开放实验室;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD29B09) 国家现代玉米产业技术体系建设专项资金(nycytx-02)~~
【分类号】：F323.21

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