山东省森林资源变化及驱动力分析

发布时间：2018-03-19 13:42

  本文选题：森林资源　切入点：相关分析　出处：《山东农业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：森林资源是世界上自然资源的重要组成部分,具有经济、社会和生态等多种功能,人类社会对生态环境的日渐重视,使得森林资源的重要性更加凸显。森林资源的动态变化受许多因素的影响,其中重要的因素之一是经济发展水平。我国幅员辽阔,人口众多,现有的森林资源在质和量上尚难以满足人们日益增长的生产生活需要。研究森林资源的发展变化规律,分析与各种社会因素存在的相关性,是探索物质文明与生态文明依存关系的内容之一,也有利于探究社会经济发展与森林资源环境之间协调发展的关系。近年来山东省经济快速发展、工业化水平不断提升,意味着建设用地的面积不断扩大、农业用地逐步减少、人地矛盾更加尖锐,同时伴随着对自然资源的过度消耗,造成山东省森林资源保育与发展面临压力,森林质量难以提高,生物多样性下降,森林生态系统功能不能满足区域社会需求。如何找到经济发展和森林资源营造、保护利用之间的平衡点是现代化林业发展的重点。本研究以山东省森林资源为研究对象,以八次全国森林资源连续清查山东省调查结果为基础,针对森林蓄积量、森林覆盖率与人均GDP之间的关系,运用库兹涅茨基本模型进行研究,分析了人均GDP的变化与森林资源消长的关系,并研究了这种影响所存在的滞后性。依据获得的最优模型对2013年至2017年的森林资源进行了预测分析。通过探讨山东省森林资源变化趋势和经济发展的规律,为提高山东省森林资源数量,更有效地开展林业工作,制定科学的林业政策提供依据。主要研究内容与结论如下:(1)运用库兹涅茨基本模型,以八次全国森林资源连续清查山东省调查数据为基础,针对森林蓄积量、森林覆盖率与人均GDP关系进行研究,研究结果表明森林资源变化情况和经济发展状况存在正相关关系,森林覆盖率和森林蓄积量与人均GDP的相关系数均分别大于0.9,相关性较强。(2)鉴于社会经济的发展成果体现在森林资源消长上会有一定时间的滞后,本研究还分析了经济发展对森林资源影响的滞后性规律。研究结果表明山东省森林蓄积量和森林覆盖率对经济发展因素的响应存在不同程度的滞后效应,森林覆盖率的滞后年份为2年,森林蓄积量的滞后年份为7年。(3)通过对山东省森林资源与人均GDP模型分析发现,在森林蓄积量方面表现为:在经济欠发达时,山东省森林资源生长良好,人为破坏少,蓄积增长快;经济发展到一定程度,工业快速发展,人类过于重视经济效益而加大了对森林资源开发利用,导致森林资源蓄积增长缓慢;在人均GDP达到5000元左右时,逐渐增强的生态意识和环保意识,在森林资源的保育上得以体现,蓄积量的增长速度再次达到较高水平;在森林覆盖率方面表现为:森林覆盖率随着经济的增长基本保持一个缓慢稳定的增长速度,实测值和理论值除个别阶段有较小的波动外基本契合,而且这个增长速度有减缓的趋势,说明随着经济的增长,人均GDP对森林覆盖率的影响的边际效益递减,当森林覆盖率增长到某一最大值后,经济因素对其影响可能将会降到一个极低的水平甚至会消失。(4)本研究将森林资源实测值与理论值做了对比分析,并对2013年至2017年的森林资源预测。结果显示森林资源实测值和理论值的走势基本一致。预计到2017年,森林覆盖率可以达到17.97%,森林蓄积量达到43799.33万m3。(5)在以上研究的基础上,基于社会经济发展趋势和规律,对山东省林业发展提出了理论性的建议,为林业管理部门的政策制定提供依据。希望通过有关林业政策的不断完善,随着社会对生态文明追求愿望的增强和经济的快速发展,山东省的林业和森林资源数量和质量以更高的效率和更健康的模式快速发展。
[Abstract]:Forest resources is an important part of the world, natural resources with economic, social and ecological functions, pay more attention to the ecological environment of the human society, the importance of forest resources is more prominent. The dynamic changes of forest resources is affected by many factors, one of the important factors in the level of economic development in our country. The vast, populous, the existing forest resources in terms of quality and quantity is still difficult to meet the growing production needs. Changes of forest resources, correlation analysis and various social factors, is one of the exploration of the material civilization and the ecological civilization of the dependency relation, but also conducive to the coordinated development of the relationship between to explore the development of social economy and the forest resources and the environment. In recent years, the rapid economic development of Shandong Province, the industrialization level is rising, means that the land area of continuous construction Expansion of agricultural land gradually reduced, the contradiction between people and land more sharp, accompanied by excessive consumption of natural resources, resulting in conservation and development of forest resources in Shandong province is facing pressure to improve the quality of forest, biodiversity decline, forest ecosystem function can not meet the demand of the society. How to find the regional economic development and forest resources to build. Balance between protection and utilization is the focus of modern forestry development. The study of forest resources in Shandong Province as the research object, from the eight national forest inventory in Shandong Province Based on the investigation, the forest volume, the coverage rate of the relationship between GDP and the per capita forest, using the basic model of Kuznets research, analyzes the relationship between with the change of growth and decline of forest resources per capita GDP, lag and study of this effect are obtained. Based on the optimal model for the 2013 to 2017 The forest resource is predicted and analyzed. Through discussing the change of Shandong province forest resources trend and the law of economic development, in order to improve the quantity of forest resources in Shandong Province, to more effectively carry out the work of forestry, provide a basis for formulating scientific forestry policies. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) using the basic model of Kuznets, from the eight national continuous forest inventory data of Shandong Province Based on forest volume, forest coverage rate of GDP per capita and the relationship, the results of the study show that the changes of forest resources and economic development situation in positive correlation, the correlation coefficient of forest coverage and forest volume and per capita GDP were greater than 0.9, a strong correlation. (2) given the progress of economic development lags behind in the growth and decline of forest resources will have a certain period of time, this paper also analyzes the influence of economic development on forest resources 鐨勬粸鍚庢，

本文编号：1634519