基于系统动力学模型的哈尔滨市水资源承载力预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 05:18

本文选题：水资源承载力　切入点：水资源安全　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源承载力是度量水资源安全问题的有效手段，对于认识和解决水资源安全问题、建设水资源安全保障体系具有重大意义。但到目前为止，水资源承载力还没有一个统一的概念，基于此，本论文首先总结了目前国内外具有代表性的观点，加以分解、归纳，整合出具有普遍意义的水资源承载力概念，并对其内涵、影响因素和相关支撑理论做了深入分析；其次，以搜集整理的有关哈尔滨市各方面资料为依据，对哈尔滨市的水资源与水环境现状、供需水构成和各用水系统的发展现状、存在的问题以及未来发展趋势做了系统的分析；在此基础上，利用VensimPLE6.2软件构建了以水资源供需平衡为核心，以水资源和环境约束的哈尔滨市水资源承载力系统动力学模型，并对该模型进行了历史性检验和灵敏度分析，检验、分析结果显示：该模型运行结果与实际系统历史发展状况一致，且具有较好的鲁棒性，能够满足课题研究需要；最后，利用该模型对无约束条件的哈尔滨市哈尔滨常规模式社会经济发展和有约束的哈尔滨水资源承载力以及五种假定方案条件下的哈尔滨市水资源承载力进行了模拟。分析对比常规模式下的哈尔滨市社会经济发展和水资源承载力模拟结果可知：未来哈尔滨水资源不足以支撑哈尔滨未来社会经济发展。2017年之后，哈尔滨市用水总量将超过哈尔滨市水资源开发利用控制红线，出现政策性的水资源短缺，其中，农业的超载最先出现，其次是工业，最后为第三产业。分析对比五种假定方模拟和对模拟结果的分析可知，节水方案可以在近期有效地缓解哈尔滨市所面临的水资源问题，说明近期哈尔滨市社会经济发展所面临的水资源问题相对较轻，且存在较大节水空间；产业结构调整方案和农业结构调整方案可以明显提高未来哈尔滨市水资源承载力，主要是由于这两种方案一定程度的削减了农业用水量，使其它行业用水短缺的情况得到有效缓解。治污方案对未来哈尔滨水资源承载力作用不大，但是该方案可以有效地消减污染物和改善环境，因此作用也不可忽视；综合方案中包含了上述四种方案的有效措施，对未来哈尔滨市水资源承载力改善最为明显。可以解决未来哈尔滨市除农业之外的其它行业所面临的水资源超载问题。
[Abstract]:The carrying capacity of water resources is an effective means to measure the problem of water resources security. It is of great significance to understand and solve the problems of water resources security and to build water resources security guarantee system.But up to now, there is not a unified concept of water resources carrying capacity. Based on this, this paper firstly summarizes the representative views at home and abroad, decomposes, induces and integrates the concept of water resources carrying capacity of universal significance.It also makes a deep analysis of its connotation, influencing factors and related supporting theories. Secondly, based on the collected and collated information on various aspects of Harbin, the paper analyzes the current situation of water resources and water environment in Harbin.The composition of water supply and demand, the present situation of water supply and demand system, the existing problems and the development trend in the future are analyzed systematically. On this basis, the balance of supply and demand of water resources is constructed by using VensimPLE6.2 software, the core of which is the balance of supply and demand of water resources.Based on the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Harbin under the constraints of water resources and environment, the historical test and sensitivity analysis of the model are carried out.The analysis results show that the running results of the model are consistent with the historical development of the actual system, and have good robustness, which can meet the needs of the research.The model is used to simulate the social and economic development of Harbin conventional model and the limited water resources carrying capacity of Harbin and the water resources carrying capacity of Harbin under five hypothetical schemes.By analyzing and comparing the results of social and economic development and water resources carrying capacity of Harbin under the conventional model, we can see that the future Harbin water resources will not be enough to support the future social and economic development of Harbin.The total amount of water used in Harbin will exceed the red line of water resources development and utilization in Harbin, and there will be a policy shortage of water resources. Among them, the overload of agriculture appears first, followed by industry, and finally the tertiary industry.Analysis and comparison of five hypothetical square simulations and analysis of simulation results show that water-saving schemes can effectively alleviate the water resources problems faced by Harbin in the near future.It shows that the water resources problems facing the recent socio-economic development in Harbin are relatively light, and there is more water saving space, and the industrial structure adjustment scheme and the agricultural structure adjustment plan can obviously improve the water resources carrying capacity of Harbin in the future.The main reason is that these two schemes reduce agricultural water consumption to a certain extent, so that the shortage of water in other industries can be effectively alleviated.The pollution control plan has little effect on the carrying capacity of water resources in Harbin in the future, but it can effectively reduce pollutants and improve the environment, so it can not be ignored.The improvement of water resources carrying capacity in future Harbin is the most obvious.Can solve the future Harbin City in addition to agriculture other industries facing the problem of water resources overload.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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