1956~2010年中国可更新水资源量的变化

发布时间：2018-04-05 18:24

本文选题：水资源距平　切入点：变差系数　出处：《中国科学:地球科学》2014年09期

【摘要】：随着人类对水资源需求的增加,对生态和环境问题的日益重视,水资源安全问题越来越受到国际社会的广泛关注.水资源已成为制约中国经济社会可持续发展的瓶颈,已被提升到关系中国经济安全、生态安全和国家安全的战略高度.认识中国水资源的变化,对分析气候变化的影响,编制水资源利用和保护规划以及制定水资源政策具有重要的参考价值.结合中国水资源评价的资料成果,利用距平分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Morlet小波分析,本文较全面地研究了1956~2010年我国水资源的变化.结果显示:(1)从全国尺度上,水资源变化趋势并不明显.近55年来我国水资源总量呈现微弱的增加趋势,近20年的年均水资源量比多年均水资源量仅增加1%.(2)我国不同水资源分区的水资源变化差异较大,我国北方地区海河区、黄河区的水资源显著减少,近20年减少幅度达19%和17%;而我国南方地区和西北地区水资源的增加,特别是西北诸河区,近20年该区水资源量增加近10%.(3)相对1961~1990年,近20年来全国水资源量的年际变化波动有增加趋势.在水资源一级区中西北诸河区和西南诸河区变差系数增加较明显,但在水资源量显著减少的海河区、黄河区年际变化趋于减小.(4)全国水资源变化存在14年准周期,其叠加了各水资源一级区水资源系列不同周期,相邻水资源一级区水资源变化的第一或第二主周期存在明显一致性.
[Abstract]:With the increase of human demand for water resources and the increasing attention to ecological and environmental problems, water resources security has been paid more and more attention by the international community.Water resources have become the bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of China's economy and society, and have been promoted to the strategic height of China's economic security, ecological security and national security.Understanding the change of water resources in China has important reference value for analyzing the influence of climate change, drawing up water resources utilization and protection plan and formulating water resources policy.Based on the data of water resources evaluation in China, the variation of water resources in China from 1956 to 2010 is studied comprehensively by using the anomaly analysis Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results show that the trend of water resources change is not obvious on the national scale.In the past 55 years, the total amount of water resources in China has shown a slight increasing trend, and the average annual water resources volume in the past 20 years has only increased by 1. 2% compared with the average annual water resources volume.) there are great differences in the water resources of different water resources zones in China, and the Haihe River area in the northern part of our country.The water resources in the Yellow River region have decreased significantly, by 19% and 17% in the last 20 years, while the water resources in the southern and northwest regions of China, especially in the Northwest Rivers region, have increased by nearly 10% in the last 20 years.In the past 20 years, the interannual fluctuation of water resources volume in China has an increasing trend.The coefficient of variation of the middle and northwest rivers and southwest rivers in the first class area of water resources increases more obviously, but in the Haihe River region where the quantity of water resources is significantly reduced, the interannual variation of the Yellow River tends to decrease. 4) the change of water resources in the whole country has a 14-year quasi-cycle.The first or second main periods of the water resources change in the adjacent primary water resources regions are obviously consistent.
【作者单位】：水利部水利水电规划设计总院;武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(编号:2010CB428406) 中国科学院外部协作项目(编号:GJHZ1016)资助
【分类号】：TV213.4

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