低径流量条件下海平面上升对长江口淡水资源的影响

发布时间：2018-04-25 10:47

本文选题：长江河口 + 盐水入侵　；参考：《气候变化研究进展》2015年04期

【摘要】：基于长江口水动力及盐水入侵三维数值模式ECOM-si,统筹考虑气候变化导致流域极端低径流量的前提下,研究在未来(2030、2050和2100年)海平面上升过程中,长江口淡水资源分布及总量变化过程,探讨河口三大重要水库取水活动对海平面上升的响应,对防范未来可能出现的盐水入侵危害具有重要作用,也为长江口水源地建设与水库取水调度提供理论依据和技术支持。1999年冬季、2006年秋季和201 1年春季期间长江径流量均为自1980年以来的同期最低,且长江口均发生了极为严重、影响巨大的盐水入侵,考虑到径流量的季节变化特点,选取上述3个时期的径流量作为上游边界条件。结果表明,长江口淡水资源在1999年冬季径流量条件下随海平面上升而减少,至2100年大、小潮期间淡水总量相比于2012年分别减少42%和41%,水库最长不宜取水天数增加70%以上;在2006年秋季径流量条件下,淡水资源随海平面上升而减少,但在海平面上升至2050年情况下,河道水位抬升使进入北支的径流量增加,削弱盐水倒灌,水库最长不宜取水天数减少40%~50%;在201 1年春季径流量条件下,淡水资源在海平面上升至2100年后大、小潮期间分别减少43%和20%,水库最长不宜取水天数增加1~3 d。
[Abstract]:Based on the three dimensional numerical model of hydrodynamic and saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary, ECOM-si. taking into account the extremely low runoff caused by climate change, this paper studies the process of sea level rise in the coming years 20302050and 2100. The distribution and total quantity of freshwater resources in the Changjiang Estuary are studied. The response of three major reservoirs to sea level rise is discussed, which plays an important role in the prevention of possible saltwater intrusion hazards in the future. It also provides theoretical basis and technical support for water source construction and reservoir water intake operation in the Yangtze Estuary. During the winter of 1999, autumn of 2006 and spring of 201 years, the runoff of the Yangtze River is the lowest since 1980, and the Yangtze River Estuary is very serious. Considering the seasonal variation of runoff the runoff of the three periods mentioned above is chosen as the upstream boundary condition. The results show that the freshwater resources in the Changjiang Estuary decreased with the rise of sea level in winter in 1999, and the total amount of fresh water decreased by 42% and 41% respectively during the low tide period compared with 2012, and the longest unsuitable days of the reservoir increased by more than 70%. Under the conditions of runoff in autumn 2006, freshwater resources decrease with the rise of sea level, but in the case of rising sea level to 2050, the rise of river water level increases the runoff into the northern branch and weakens the recharge of salt water. Under the condition of spring runoff in 201 year, the fresh water resources will be large after 2100, the water resources will decrease by 43% and 20% respectively during the low tide period, and the longest days of the reservoir should be increased by 1 ~ 3 days.
【作者单位】：上海市水文总站;华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41476077) 上海市科学技术委员会重点项目(14231200402)
【分类号】：P731.23;TV213

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