水资源多维协同配置模型及应用

发布时间：2018-04-26 14:06

本文选题：水资源 + 多维协同配置　；参考：《中国水利水电科学研究院》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：随着经济社会的快速发展,人类对水资源的掠夺性开发利用,使得人与水之间的关系愈发紧张。特别是20世纪中后期以来,由于全球人口爆发式增长、水资源的不合理开发与利用,导致大范围水资源短缺与浪费并存、水污染频发、生态环境恶化、区域或国家之间争水现象日益严重。水资源短缺正在取代石油成为在全世界引起危机的主要问题,并已成为二十一世纪人类所面临的最为严峻的现实问题之一。水资源配置是解决水资源短缺问题的有效途径之一。通过合理配置有限的水资源,使水资源系统-社会经济系统-生态环境系统之间协同发展,最终实现“人与自然、人与水和谐”,确保水资源系统得到良性循环与可持续利用,社会经济系统实现各行业之间、各区域之间协同可持续发展,生态环境系统获得修复、稳定健康发展。本文以境外地表水替代境内地下水为出发点,在以往水资源配置模型研究的基础上,根据“水资源系统-社会经济系统-生态环境系统”协同发展的理念,构建一种基于“两次迭代、三次配置”的多维协同配置模型,并以沈阳市为研究区进行实际应用,验证该模型的合理性与可操作性。本次研究拓展了水资源配置研究的科学内涵、进一步丰富和发展了水资源配置模型技术及应用范畴。其主要研究成果包括：(1)在系统诊断和评价水资源禀赋条件、开发利用现状与城市供水风险的基础上,以压采地下水源规划为依据,通过合理布局常规水源、应急水源和战略储备水源,形成“长短结合、远近互补”全时空覆盖的城市供水“三重安全”保障格局,为制定未来城市供水应急预案提供参考。(2)在全面收集和梳理大量水文地质资料及钻孔剖面等相关成果的基础上,首次构建沈阳市平原区三维地层空间结构模型,提出面向土壤次生盐渍化、道路翻浆和地铁、地下构筑物抗浮与防水设计的地下水控制性红线上限水位,以及防止地面沉降、地裂缝等环境地质灾害的地下水控制性红线下限水位,为实现地下水双控及与地表水、外调水等之间的协同配置提供了重要依据和支撑。(3)在构建平原区三维地层结构模型和水文地质概念模型的基础上,建立地下水数值模拟模型,通过模型识别和验证,确定和提出一整套模拟区水文地质参数和各种均衡要素,为地下水“双控”和动态可开采量计算等奠定坚实基础。(4)在研究区三维地层结构模型及水文地质参数分区的基础上,以水资源协同配置思想和水均衡原理为基础,提出一种不同水平年不同水资源配置格局的地下水可开采量动态计算方法--基于“初次配置-判断调整-再次配置”的地下水可开采量耦合迭代方法,为不同水平年面向不同水资源配置格局的地下水可开采量动态计算提供一种新方法。(5)根据科学发展观和可持续、生态文明与协同发展的理念,以水资源配置模型为主导牵引模块,综合运用城市供水风险分析、需水多方案分析、三维地层结构模型、水均衡模型、地下水数值模型等构建面向河道内生态环境需水过程与地下水“双控”的水资源多维协同配置模型,并提出一种基于“两次迭代、三次配置”的多维协同配置计算流程,以支撑研究区城市水源置换后水资源配置格局调整及相应的地下水动态演变趋势分析等工作,为沈阳市地下水封井压采、城市应急水源及战略储备水源布局和最终形成面向“人与自然、人与水和谐“的水资源协同配置格局,以及实行最严格的水资源管理制度等提供技术支撑。(6)根据所构建的多维协同配置模型和提出的计算流程,通过不同组合方案的长系列逐月调节计算和综合比选,最终确定研究区不同水平年不同保证率面向河道内生态环境需水过程与地下水“双控”的水资源多维协同配置推荐结果。其中2030年研究区需水总量为39.88亿m3,供水总量为39.87亿m3,包括地表水供水量为5.65亿m3,地下水供水量为18.51亿m3,再生水供水量为3.14亿m3,外调水供水量为12.57亿m3,缺水量为156万m3,缺水率为0.04%。其中市内五区需水总量为10.27亿m3,供水总量为10.27亿m3,包括地表水供水量为0.11亿m3,地下水供水量为0.93亿m3,再生水供水量为1.70亿m3,外调水供水量7.53亿m3,缺水量为7万m3,缺水率为0.01%,尚预留城市应急水源供水量3.51亿m3和战略储备水源供水量2.41亿m3。总之,通过研究区水资源多维协同配置和科学调整水资源总体配置格局,将彻底改变和扭转研究区城市供水水源单一及过度依赖当地地下水源的局面,逐步形成以外调水为主力水源、以市内五区当地地下水源为主要应急水源、以市内周边四区地下水源和石佛寺水库(地表水与地下水联调水源)为主要战略储备水源的城市供水“三重”安全保障体系,以水资源的可持续利用支撑全域经济社会的可持续协同跨越发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the economy and society, human exploitation and utilization of water resources make the relationship between people and water increasingly tense. Especially since the mid and late twentieth Century, the irrational exploitation and utilization of water resources have led to the coexistence of water resources shortage and waste, frequent water pollution and ecological environment because of the outbreak of the global population in the late twentieth Century. Water resources shortage is replacing oil as a major problem causing crisis in the world, and has become one of the most serious problems faced by human beings in the twenty-first Century. Water resource allocation is one of the effective ways to solve the problem of water shortage. Through rational allocation, water resources allocation is one of the most important problems. The limited water resources make the water resources system - socioeconomic system - ecological environment system coordinated development, finally realize "man and nature, man and water harmony", ensure that the water resources system gets a healthy cycle and sustainable utilization, the social and economic system realizes the sustainable development among the various sectors, and the ecological environment system is obtained. In this paper, based on the study of water resources allocation model, based on the concept of water resources system - socioeconomic system - ecological environment system, a multi dimensional cooperative configuration model based on "two iterations and three configurations" is built on the basis of the previous water resource allocation model. The feasibility and maneuverability of the model are verified by the application of Shenyang as the research area. This study expands the scientific connotation of water resource allocation research and further enriches and develops the water resource allocation model technology and application category. The main research results include: (1) the system diagnosis and evaluation of water resources endowment conditions, On the basis of the current situation of utilization and the risk of urban water supply, based on the planning of underground water supply, the "three safety" security framework of urban water supply is formed by rational layout of conventional water source, emergency water source and strategic reserve water source, which will provide a reference for the formulation of the urban water supply emergency plan for the future urban water supply. (2) on the basis of collecting and combing a lot of related results of hydrogeological data and drilling section, the three-dimensional spatial structure model of Shenyang plain area is constructed for the first time, and the upper limit water level of groundwater controlled red line is put forward for secondary salinization of soil, road turning and subway, the anti floating and water resistance design of underground structures. The groundwater controlled water level under the control of ground water, such as ground subsidence, ground fissure, and other environmental geological disasters, provides an important basis and support for the coordinated allocation of groundwater double control and the coordinated allocation of ground water and external water. (3) on the basis of the construction of the three-dimensional stratigraphic structure model and the conceptual model of the water text geology in the plain area, the groundwater value is established. The simulation model, through the model identification and verification, determines and puts forward a complete set of simulated area hydrogeological parameters and various equilibrium elements, which lays a solid foundation for the groundwater "double control" and the dynamic mining calculation. (4) on the basis of the three-dimensional stratigraphic structure model and the hydrogeological parameter division of the study area, the thought of water resources coordination and the allocation of water resources is considered. Based on the principle of water balance, a dynamic calculation method for groundwater exploitation of different water resource allocation patterns in different years is proposed based on the coupling iterative method of groundwater exploitation based on "primary allocation judgment adjustment and reconfiguration" for groundwater exploitation of different water resources allocation patterns at different levels in different years. The calculation provides a new method. (5) according to the concept of Scientific Outlook on Development and sustainable, ecological civilization and cooperative development, the water resource allocation model is the leading traction module, the water supply risk analysis, the water multi scheme analysis, the three dimensional stratigraphic structure model, the water balance model, the groundwater numerical model and so on are constructed. The multi-dimensional coordinated allocation model of water resources for environmental water needs and groundwater is "double controlled", and a multi-dimensional collaborative configuration calculation process based on "two iterations and three configurations" is proposed to support the adjustment of water resources allocation pattern and the corresponding dynamic evolution trend analysis of underground water after the replacement of water source in the study area, which is the city of Shenyang. Underground water seal pressure mining, urban emergency water source and strategic reserve water source layout and the final formation of "man and nature, man and water harmony" Water Resources Coordination configuration, and the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system to provide technical support. (6) according to the multi-dimensional coordination configuration model and the proposed calculation process, through not With a long series of monthly adjustment calculation and comprehensive comparison of the same combination scheme, the results of the collaborative allocation of water resources for water requirements and groundwater "double control" in the ecological environment of the study area are finally determined. The total water requirement of the study area in 2030 is 3 billion 988 million m3 and the total water supply is 3 billion 987 million m3, including the total water supply in the study area. The water supply of surface water is 565 million m3, the water supply of groundwater is 1 billion 851 million m3, the water supply of reclaimed water is 314 million m3, the amount of water supply is 1 billion 257 million m3, the water shortage is 1 million 560 thousand M3, the water shortage rate is 0.04%., the total water demand in the five districts of the city is 1 billion 27 million m3, the total water supply is 1 billion 27 million m3, including the water supply of surface water 11 million m3, and the water supply of ground water 0.93 The water supply of the reclaimed water is 170 million m3, the water supply of the reclaimed water is 170 million m3, the water supply quantity of the external water supply is 70 thousand M3, the water shortage is 0.01%. The amount of water supply in the urban emergency water supply is 351 million m3 and the water supply of the strategic reserve water supply is all in a word. To reverse the situation that the water supply source of urban water supply is single and over dependence on the local underground water source, the main water source is water diversion, and the local underground water source is the main emergency water source, and the underground water source in the four districts and the stone Buddha Temple Reservoir (surface water and underground water combined water source) are the main strategic reserves of the city. The "three heavy" security system of water supply supports the sustainable and coordinated development of the whole region's economy and society with the sustainable utilization of water resources.

【学位授予单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】