1990年以来长江三角洲耕地资源变化及驱动因子研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 01:21

本文选题：耕地利用强度 + 空间自相关　；参考：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年09期

【摘要】：长江三角洲地区是中国经济发展最为快速的地区之一,虽耕地资源秉赋较好,但在经济快速发展的背景下,耕地问题显得十分严峻。以长江三角洲地区16个地级市为研究对象,利用1990~2012年相关数据,以市域为单元分析了耕地资源变化和实际利用强度的时空演变过程。结果表明:(1)1990~2012年,长三角地区的耕地总面积和人均耕地面积呈现周期性的下降趋势,以"快-慢-快-慢-慢"的循环模式逐步降低;(2)长三角地区耕地实际利用强度大体呈现"北强南弱"分布规律,在空间表现上,原来集中连片的"高-高"、"低-低"格局正逐渐破碎化,开始出现斑点镶嵌式格局;(3)长三角地区的人口、二三产业比重和城市化水平均对耕地面积变化起到显著作用,其弹性系数分别为-0.216、-0.194和-0.203,而人均GDP与耕地面积则没有显著相关性。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most rapid economic development areas in China. Although the cultivated land resources are good, the problem of cultivated land appears to be very severe in the background of rapid economic development. 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region are taken as the research object. The changes of cultivated land resources are analyzed by using the relevant data of 1990~2012 years and the urban area as a unit. The results show that: (1) in 1990~2012, the total arable land area and per capita arable land area in the Yangtze River Delta region showed a periodic downward trend, and gradually decreased with the "fast slow slow slow slow" cycle mode; (2) the intensity of cultivated land utilization in the Yangtze River Delta region showed the distribution law of "North strong south weak" in the Yangtze River Delta region, and in the space table. At present, the pattern of "high to high" and "low low" is gradually fragmented, and the pattern of spot mosaic is beginning to appear. (3) the population of the Yangtze River Delta, the proportion of the two or three industry and the urbanization water play an important role in the change of the cultivated land, and the elasticity coefficient is divided into -0.216, -0.194 and -0.203, while the per capita GDP and the area of cultivated land are not obvious. There is a correlation.

【作者单位】：中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41130750)“长江三角洲区域一体化空间组织机理及优化研究”
【分类号】：F323.211

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