水资源空间匹配分析及其影响因素探讨

发布时间：2018-04-30 23:41

本文选题：水资源 + 匹配　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源是经济社会可持续发展不可替代的自然资源之一,但由于水资源禀赋在空间上的不确定性,即水资源的空间分布与区域经济、人口分布不一致,由此导致水资源在与人口、经济协同发展的过程中受到极大的限制,因此,研究水资源的空间匹配状况对于协调区域水资源、人口和经济三者的均衡发展具有重要意义。本文通过对水资源研究文献、水资源空间匹配文献,人口和经济集聚文献以及基尼系数法进行系统综述,以中国70个重点城市为样本,基于基尼系数法对样本城市的水资源-人口和水资源-经济匹配状况进行了计算,从时间和空间两个维度进行了综合分析,并在得到分析结果后进一步对影响水资源空间匹配的因素进行了探讨。取得研究结果如下:(1)研究期间,样本城市整体的水资源-人口匹配和水资源-经济匹配状况都不理想,分别处于不匹配和极不匹配状况,同时显示出水资源-人口的匹配状况要优于水资源-经济匹配状况。(2)分区域的水资源空间匹配结果发现东、中、西部城市和东北部城市存在截然不同的水资源时间演变路径,东部城市的匹配状况与样本城市整体的匹配状况相似,在基本保持稳定的同时匹配度略有变差;中部城市受经济集聚和人口集聚的影响呈现波动式的匹配变迁路径;西部城市的匹配状况整体上比较平稳但趋向于匹配度变好,同时水资源-人口匹配明显优于水资源-经济匹配状况;东北部城市水资源空间匹配变迁呈现先U型后倒U型的路径,即人口和经济的水资源空间匹配度变好→变差→再变好。(3)借鉴相关文献,在总结可能影响水资源空间匹配的因素的基础上,基于二阶段动态广义矩模型的实证检验分析表明,国际贸易、产业结构、经济发展潜力和发展要求都是影响水资源空间匹配的因素。针对水资源空间不匹配状况以及不同区域之间匹配变迁差异较大的特征,应该从优化空间匹配的视角出发,适当放松人口流动并适当制约经济集聚程度,同时不同区域要从自身区域发展的实际情况出发,结合当地的资源禀赋来促进经济社会发展,需要指出,促进人口和经济的同向集聚是优化资源配置的重要政策手段。
[Abstract]:Water resources is one of the irreplaceable natural resources for the sustainable development of economy and society. However, because of the uncertainty of water resources endowment in space, that is, the spatial distribution of water resources and regional economy, the population distribution is not consistent. As a result, water resources are greatly restricted in the process of coordinated development with population and economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the spatial matching of water resources for coordinating the balanced development of regional water resources, population and economy. This paper makes a systematic review of water resources research literature, water resources spatial matching literature, population and economic agglomeration literature and Gini coefficient method, taking 70 key cities in China as samples. Based on the Gini coefficient method, the matching situation of water resources, population and water resource economy in the sample cities is calculated, and the two dimensions of time and space are comprehensively analyzed. The factors that affect the spatial matching of water resources are discussed. The results of the study are as follows: (1) during the study period, the overall water-population matching and water-economic matching of the sample cities were not ideal, and they were in mismatch and extremely mismatch, respectively. At the same time, it shows that the matching situation of water resources and population is better than that of water resources and economic matching. The results of spatial matching of water resources in the sub-region show that there are quite different water resources temporal evolution paths in east, middle, west and northeast cities. The matching condition of the eastern city is similar to that of the sample city, and the matching degree of the eastern city is a little worse than that of the sample city, and the central city is affected by the economic agglomeration and the population agglomeration. On the whole, the matching condition of western cities is stable but tends to become better, and the matching of water resources and population is obviously better than that of water resources and economy. The spatial matching changes of urban water resources in Northeast China show the path of first U type and then backward U type, that is, population and economy spatial matching degree of water resources becomes better and worse, and then becomes better. On the basis of summing up the factors that may affect the spatial matching of water resources, the empirical analysis based on the two-stage dynamic generalized moment model shows that international trade, industrial structure, Economic development potential and development requirements are the factors that affect the spatial matching of water resources. In view of the characteristics of spatial mismatch of water resources and the difference of matching changes between different regions, it is necessary to relax population flow and restrict the degree of economic agglomeration from the perspective of optimizing spatial matching. At the same time, different regions should proceed from the actual situation of their own regional development and combine the local resource endowment to promote the economic and social development. It is necessary to point out that promoting the codirectional agglomeration of population and economy is an important policy means to optimize the allocation of resources.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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