山东省农业发展的水资源支持能力研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 06:52

本文选题：山东省 + 农业水资源　；参考：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的农业水资源的研究主要集中在水质污染迅速，水环境的恶化，水资源的价格机制不合理，缺乏有效的管理机制等问题，以及针对这些突出的问题提出深化水价改革，建立节水型社会等可行性建议。但是，较少涉及水资源对农业发展支持能力的研究。我国现阶段对于农业水资源的理论研究重定性分析，缺少定量分析，重视单一层面研究和静态研究，比较缺乏系统性、动态的研究。以上几个方面为本水资源对农业发展支持力度不足的原因以及优化措施提供一定的借鉴作用。本文在了认识农业水资源支持能力内涵的基础上，建立SPSS数据模型分析水资源对农业发展的重要性，同时以实证法分析水资源支持能力对农业的发展的重要性，最终通过对山东省农业结构的调整实现水资源对农业发展支持力度的最大化。本文的内容结构安排如下：第一部分，是本文的引言部分，该部分主要介绍了山东省农业水资源的研究背景、目的及意义，然后就目前国内外对农业水资源的主要研究成果进行综述，以此凸显本文选题的意义以及合理性，并提出了本研究所使用的研究方法以及技术路线，指出了本研究中存在的不足。第二部分，包括本文的第二章、第三章和第四章，主要介绍了关于农业水资源的概念，以及山东省农业水资源总量不足，人均、亩均水资源占有量低；地区分布不均，各地开发利用条件差别明显；农业水资源年际、年内变化剧烈，以及农业水资源利用效率低的特点。通过多元线性回归分析得出山东省农业水资源对农业生产总值的贡献很大的结论。这就要求我们加大对山东省农业水资源的投入，利用有效措施来提高山东省农业水资源的利用效率，以保证能够提供充足的农业水资源。第三部分，主要是本文的第四章，主要通过常规趋势法对山东省农业水资源支持能力以及强度的分析，得出山东省现阶段的农业水资源的支持能力是基本可以支持农业的需求发展的，但是仍然存在潜在的危机，农业水资源的动态供需不足的结论。第四部分，第五章和第六章，主要对山东省农业水资源支持能力不足的制约因素进行分析，同时，提出了提高山东省农业水资源支持能力的可行性建议。制约因素主要包括：农业用水和工业用水存在价格差异、农业水资源利用率低、“农转非”和水权冲突现象突出、农业水资源管理存在制度瓶颈等因素降低了山东省农业发展水资源的支持能力。可行性建议主要包括：根据山东省农业水资源的实际，增强山东省农业水资源的支持能力，，优化山东省的农业结构应采取以下基本措施：对山东省的农业结构进行调整；发展“虚拟水”贸易战略；深化水价改革，建立节水型社会，明晰稳定水权，建立有效的节水机制；冲破水资源的管理瓶颈，加强水资源的统一管理。
[Abstract]:The research of agricultural water resources in our country mainly focuses on the problems of rapid water pollution, deterioration of water environment, unreasonable price mechanism of water resources, lack of effective management mechanism, and the deepening of water price reform in view of these outstanding problems. To establish a water-saving society and other feasible suggestions. However, there is little research on the ability of water resources to support agricultural development. At present, the theoretical research of agricultural water resources in our country emphasizes on qualitative analysis, lacks of quantitative analysis, pays attention to single level research and static research, and lacks systematic and dynamic research. The above several aspects provide some reference for the reasons of the insufficient support of water resources to agricultural development and the optimization measures. On the basis of understanding the connotation of agricultural water resources supporting ability, this paper establishes SPSS data model to analyze the importance of water resources to agricultural development, and at the same time analyzes the importance of water resources supporting ability to agricultural development by empirical method. Finally, the agricultural structure of Shandong Province is adjusted to maximize the support of water resources to agricultural development. The content structure of this article is as follows: The first part is the introduction of this paper, which mainly introduces the research background, purpose and significance of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, and then summarizes the main research results of agricultural water resources at home and abroad. In order to highlight the significance and rationality of this topic, and proposed the research methods and technical routes used in this study, pointed out the shortcomings of this study. The second part, including the second chapter, the third chapter and the fourth chapter, mainly introduces the concept of agricultural water resources, the shortage of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, the low per capita per mu water resources, the uneven regional distribution. The conditions of development and utilization are obviously different, the agricultural water resources change sharply in different years, and the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources is low. Through multiple linear regression analysis, it is concluded that agricultural water resources in Shandong province contribute a great deal to agricultural GDP. This requires us to increase the investment in agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, and use effective measures to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, so as to ensure that adequate agricultural water resources can be provided. The third part, mainly is the fourth chapter of this article, mainly through the conventional trend method to Shandong Province agricultural water resources support ability and the intensity analysis, It is concluded that the supporting capacity of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province at the present stage can basically support the development of agricultural demand, but there is still a potential crisis, and the dynamic supply and demand of agricultural water resources is insufficient. The fourth, fifth and sixth chapters mainly analyze the restriction factors of agricultural water resources supporting capacity in Shandong Province, and at the same time, put forward the feasible suggestions to improve the agricultural water resources support capacity of Shandong Province. The constraints include: the price difference between agricultural water and industrial water, the low utilization rate of agricultural water, the prominent phenomenon of "agricultural conversion" and water right conflict. There are institutional bottlenecks in agricultural water resources management, which reduce the supporting capacity of agricultural development water resources in Shandong Province. The feasibility suggestions include: according to the reality of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, strengthening the supporting capacity of agricultural water resources in Shandong Province, optimizing the agricultural structure of Shandong Province should take the following basic measures: adjust the agricultural structure of Shandong Province; Developing "virtual water" trade strategy, deepening water price reform, establishing water-saving society, clarifying and stabilizing water rights, establishing effective water-saving mechanism, breaking through the bottleneck of water resources management, strengthening the unified management of water resources.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.213

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