变化环境下基于脆弱性评价的中国地下水资源优化管理及保护措施

发布时间：2018-07-21 20:24

【摘要】：地下水是人类赖以生存的水资源的重要组成部分之一,是一种宝贵的自然资源,是保证经济发展和社会进步的重要因素。作为国家发展必不可少的自然资源之一,保护好地下水资源对于一个国家综合发展起着关键性的作用。近年来,在全球气候变化的大背景下,我国城市化、工业化进程加快,人类活动对地下水环境的影响不断加强。在自然因素和人类活动的双重影响下,部分地区出现了地下水蒸发浓缩作用加强、地下水水质恶化、地下水污染地表水、地下水超采严重、地下水位持续下降、土地荒漠化、地面沉降和地裂缝等地下水环境问题,已成为经济社会可持续发展的重要制约因素之一。地下水脆弱性反映了地下水系统遭受污染的潜在可能性。地下水脆弱性的研究成果可以为土地利用规划、地下水水资源保护规划、地下水水质监测等提供参考,也可以提高公众关于地下水污染的风险意识,树立以防为主的思想。本文以变化环境下地下水脆弱性评价结果为基础,对中国地下水资源未来的保护以及管理进行了以下研究:(1)预测了气候变化情景下中国地下水净补给量以及地下水位埋深,然后利用DRASTIC模型分别对中国地下水脆弱性现状以及气候变化情景下的地下水脆弱性进行了预测;(2)以保护地下水资源为前提,把气候变化情景下的中国地下水脆弱性作为约束指标,对中国的城市扩张进行了预测;(3)结合气候变化情景下的地下水脆弱性评价结果以及城市扩张用地预测结果,对变化环境下(气候变化以及城市扩张)的中国地下水脆弱性进行了预测;(4)通过现代投资组合理论,以变化环境下的中国地下水脆弱性为指标因子,对中国地下水资源的投资管理进行了优化研究。研究结果表明:(1)气候变化对地下水的净补给量以及地下水位埋深有极强的影响,未来,中国大部分地区地下水净补给量将增加1cm到2cm,地下水位埋深都上升1m到3m,且处于逐年增加的状态,中国地下水脆弱性等级将以沿海地区为中心不断向四周扩散,地下水脆弱性等级逐渐增高,高脆弱性区、较高脆弱性区和中等脆弱性区的面积将急剧扩大,而较低脆弱性区和低脆弱性区的面积将大幅萎缩,到2050年为止,中国地下水脆弱性等级的高脆弱性区、较高脆弱性区、中等脆弱性区、较低脆弱性区和低脆弱性区的面积的变化量将分别为5.32%、4.47%、-1.2%、-3.03%和-5.31%,总的变化量高达20%;(2)中国未来将面临严重城市扩张问题且城市化速度非常快。2010年我国城市面积占总面积的1.18%,到了2030年城市面积占总面积的2.95%,到2050年城市面积达到了3.17%,这意味着到2050年305400平方千米的土地被城市所取代;而且虽然历史趋势发展下的城市扩张以及地下水脆弱性约束下的城市扩张结果均显示到2030和2050年城市扩张的面积相同,但是二者的分布情况却存在很大的差异;(3)风险-投资管理分析显示,在地下水管理的过程中存在着高度的不确定性,在风险最低的情况下,三个管理阶段的投资比例应分别为0、37%和63%,然而在收益最高的情况下,所有的钱都应该投资到第一管理阶段(2020-2030年),不确定性的风险会随着收益的增高而增高,效益从0.6118增长到0.6230时,风险会从0.0118增长到0.0297。变化环境下的地下水环境的保护、规划以及投资管理是一项机遇与挑战并存的研究课题,具有复杂性、长期性和不确定性,在以后的研究中我们一定要将地下水资源的保护和管理作为研究的重点。
[Abstract]:Groundwater is one of the important components of water resources for human existence. It is a valuable natural resource. It is an important factor to ensure economic development and social progress. As one of the essential natural resources for national development, the protection of good groundwater resources plays a key role in the comprehensive development of a country. Under the background of global climate change, the urbanization of China, the process of industrialization accelerated and the influence of human activities on the groundwater environment has been strengthened continuously. Under the dual influence of natural factors and human activities, the evaporation and concentration of groundwater has been strengthened in some areas, the water quality of groundwater is deteriorating, ground water is polluted with surface water, and groundwater is overtaken seriously. Groundwater environment problems such as underground water level, land desertification, ground subsidence and ground fissure have become one of the most important factors restricting the sustainable development of economy and society. Groundwater vulnerability reflects the potential possibility of groundwater system pollution. The research results of groundwater vulnerability can be used for land use planning and groundwater. Water resources protection planning, groundwater quality monitoring and so on provide reference, can also improve public awareness of the risk of groundwater pollution, and set up a main idea of prevention. Based on the results of groundwater vulnerability assessment under the changing environment, the following studies are carried out on the protection and management of groundwater resources in China in the future: (1) forecast the gas. The net groundwater recharge and the depth of groundwater level in China under the climate change scenario, and then using the DRASTIC model to predict the vulnerability of groundwater vulnerability in China and the vulnerability of groundwater under the climate change scenarios. (2) to protect groundwater resources as a prerequisite, the groundwater vulnerability in China under the climate change scenario is restricted as a constraint. Index, forecast the urban expansion of China; (3) the groundwater vulnerability in China under changing environment (climate change and urban expansion) is predicted with the results of groundwater vulnerability assessment and urban expansive land use in climate change scenarios. (4) through modern investment portfolio theory, in the changing environment The groundwater vulnerability in China is the index factor, and the investment management of groundwater resources in China is optimized. The results show that: (1) climate change has a very strong influence on the net supply of groundwater and the depth of underground water level. In the future, the net ground water supply will increase by 1cm to 2cm in most areas of China, and the depth of groundwater level will increase by 1m. By 3M and increasing year by year, the level of groundwater vulnerability in China will continue to spread around the coastal areas, the level of vulnerability of groundwater is increasing, the area of high vulnerability, the area of the high fragile and medium fragile areas will be greatly expanded, and the area of the lower fragile and the low vulnerability areas will be substantially shrinking. By 2050, the area of high vulnerability in China's groundwater vulnerability level, high vulnerability zone, medium vulnerability zone, low vulnerability area and low vulnerability area will be 5.32%, 4.47%, -1.2%, -3.03% and -5.31%, the total change amount is up to 20%. (2) China will face serious urban expansion and urbanization in the future. In.2010, China's urban area accounted for 1.18% of the total area, the urban area accounted for 2.95% of the total area in 2030, and the urban area reached 3.17% in 2050, which means that by 2050, the land of 305400 square kilometers was replaced by the city, and the city was expanded under the historical trend and the city under the groundwater vulnerability was restricted by the city. The expansion results showed that the area of urban expansion was the same in 2030 and 2050, but there was a great difference in the distribution of the two. (3) the risk investment management analysis showed that there was a high degree of uncertainty in the process of groundwater management. In the case of the lowest risk, the proportion of investment in the three management stages should be 0,37% and 63%, respectively. However, in the case of the highest income, all the money should be invested in the first management phase (2020-2030 years). The risk of uncertainty will increase with the increase of income. When the benefit increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230, the risk will increase from 0.0118 to the 0.0297. environment, and the planning and investment management are a machine. The research topic which coexists with the challenge is complicated, long-term and uncertain. In the future research, we must take the protection and management of groundwater resources as the focus of research.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P641.8

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