气候变化下水资源动态承载力研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 16:26

【摘要】：气候变化是目前国内外公认的最主要全球性环境问题之一,未来的气候变化将进一步加剧我国水资源的供需矛盾,影响着水资源承载力的变化。在总结水资源承载力研究成果的基础上,论文阐述了水资源动态承载力的概念与内涵,提出了气候变化下水资源动态承载力计算的理论框架及基于预测-模拟-优化的控制目标反推模型计算方法(即PSO-COIM方法),并以我国最大内陆河塔里木河流域为典型实例,通过构建径流与气温、降水等气象因子的ARIMAX动态回归预测模型,分析计算RCP8.5、RCP4.5和RCP2.6三种气候情景下塔里木河流域未来不同水平年水资源动态承载力。计算结果能清晰反映出不同气候情景下水资源的承载规模,并可以判断出未来经济社会发展预测情形下的水资源承载程度,为支撑流域可持续发展提供依据。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems recognized at home and abroad at present. The future climate change will further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China and affect the change of water resources carrying capacity. On the basis of summarizing the research results of water resources carrying capacity, the paper expounds the concept and connotation of water resources dynamic carrying capacity. In this paper, a theoretical framework for the calculation of water resources dynamic bearing capacity under climate change and a method for calculating the inverse model of control objectives based on prediction, simulation and optimization (i.e., PSO-COIM method) are put forward. The typical example is the Tarim River basin, the largest inland river in China. Based on the ARIMAX dynamic regression model of runoff, temperature, precipitation and other meteorological factors, the dynamic water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin at different levels is analyzed and calculated under three climatic scenarios, RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The calculation results can clearly reflect the bearing scale of water resources under different climate scenarios, and can judge the carrying capacity of water resources under the prediction of economic and social development in the future, and provide the basis for supporting the sustainable development of the basin.
【作者单位】：郑州大学水利与环境学院;华北水利水电大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279183) 河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划项目(13IRTSTHN030)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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