气候变化对我国华南沿海地区水资源的影响——以南流江流域为例

发布时间：2018-08-22 17:29

【摘要】：为研究气候变化对我国华南沿海地区的水资源的影响,以南流江流域作为研究对象,应用具有物理机制的分布式水文模型SWAT对流域径流进行模拟。以常乐站1970~1994年月径流数据对模型进行率定,以1995~2013年月径流数据进行验证,基于南流江流域气候变化预估成果设置20种未来气候情景,模拟不同气候变化条件下的流域水文过程,计算不同情景下南流江流域径流及蒸散发的变化,分析气候变化条件下的水资源响应程度。结果表明:月径流模拟值与实测过程线总体拟合程度很好(R20.85,Ens0.8),SWAT模型在南流江流域具有较好适用性;降水是影响南流江流域径流变化的主要气候因子,而影响蒸散变化的主要气候因子是气温。降水不变时,气温每上升1℃,年均蒸散发量增加9.1 mm,年均径流量减少9.2 mm;气温不变时,降水量每增加10%,年均蒸散发量增加5.1 mm,年均径流量增加159.3 mm。预计到本世纪中叶,南流江流域年均径流变化幅度为-29.6%~27.6%,到本世纪末的变化幅度为-30.5%~26.7%,这将对南流江流域带来一系列的问题与挑战。
[Abstract]:In order to study the influence of climate change on the water resources in the coastal areas of South China, a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) with physical mechanism was used to simulate the runoff in the south Liujiang River basin. The model was determined by monthly runoff data from Changle Station in 1970-1994, and verified by monthly runoff data from 1995 to 2013. Based on the prediction results of climate change in Nanliu River Basin, 20 future climate scenarios were set up to simulate the hydrological process of the watershed under different climate change conditions. The changes of runoff and evapotranspiration in Nanliu River basin under different scenarios were calculated and the response of water resources to climate change was analyzed. The results show that the simulation value of monthly runoff fits well with the measured process line (R20.85 Ens0.8) and the SWAT model is suitable for the Nanliujiang River Basin, and the precipitation is the main climatic factor affecting the runoff variation in the Nanliu River Basin. The main climatic factor affecting evapotranspiration is air temperature. The annual evapotranspiration increased by 9.1 mm and the annual runoff decreased by 9.2 mm when the temperature increased by 1 鈩，

本文编号：2197810