贵州省水资源生态足迹评价与预测

发布时间：2018-10-15 20:24

【摘要】：水资源是人类生产生活最关键的资源,对国民经济和社会发展有着不可替代的作用,是实现社会经济可持续发展的社会基础。依据水资源生态足迹的原理和模型,对贵州省2001—2012年水资源生态足迹、生态承载力进行分析。在此基础上,采用指数平滑法对贵州省2013—2016年水资源生态足迹与生态承载力进行预测。结果表明:在2001—2012年间贵州省人均水资源生态足迹总体上呈上升趋势;贵州省历年人均水资源生态承载力均大于生态足迹,存在一定的生态盈余,水资源可持续开发利用情况较好;2013—2016年贵州省人均生态足迹呈上升趋势,2013年人均生态承载力略微下降,水资源仍处于生态盈余状态,但生态盈余量有所减少。水资源生态足迹的变化与社会经济发展密切相关,应该充分考虑贵州省水资源的时空分布情况,调整产业结构,合理调度、利用水资源,促进贵州省整个社会经济的持续发展。
[Abstract]:Water resource is the most critical resource for human production and life, plays an irreplaceable role in the national economy and social development, and is the social foundation to realize the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the principle and model of water resources ecological footprint, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2012 were analyzed. On this basis, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Guizhou Province from 2013 to 2016 were predicted by exponential smoothing method. The results show that the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in Guizhou Province is on the whole rising from 2001 to 2012, and the ecological carrying capacity of per capita water resources in Guizhou Province is larger than the ecological footprint in the past years, and there is a certain ecological surplus. The per capita ecological footprint of Guizhou Province increased from 2013 to 2016, the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased slightly in 2013, and the water resources were still in an ecological surplus state, but the amount of ecological surplus was reduced. The change of ecological footprint of water resources is closely related to the development of social economy. Therefore, we should fully consider the space-time distribution of water resources in Guizhou Province, adjust the industrial structure, make use of water resources, and make use of water resources to promote the sustainable development of the whole society and economy of Guizhou Province.
【作者单位】：重庆交通大学河海学院;重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院;贵州科学院山地资源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41201546,41261038) 重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2012jjA20010) 国家十二五科技支撑计划专题(2011BAC02B02) 国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ25B09) 贵州省重大科技专项(黔科合重大专项字⺌2012⺗6015号) 国家重大科技水环境污染与控制治理专项(2009ZX07528~003,2012ZX07503~002)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4

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