复杂性视角下的红兴隆管理局农业水资源优化配置研究

发布时间：2019-06-18 08:08

【摘要】：红兴隆管理局位于三江平原腹地,是黑龙江省占土地面积较大的垦区之一。近年来,随着经济、人口的不断增加,工业、城市化的加快以及不合理的开采和利用水资源,致使水文系统的干扰日益增强,农业水文要素的复杂性越来越突出,这些因素都成为制约着农业可持续发展的关键。农业水资源的持续利用,制约着水资源的持续利用,从而使整个社会的可持续发展受到影响,只有采取科学合理的措施和方法,才能使区域农业经济朝着好的方向发展。从保障农业可持续发展的角度出发,运用排列熵对红兴隆管理局水资源复杂性进行测度分析,确定综合复杂性空间分布,并在此基础上实现水资源与农水资源优化配置,最后进行效果评价,对于指导合理利用农业水资源,协调社会、经济、环境的发展提供了有力的参考依据。 (1)根据黑龙江省红兴隆管理局水务局提供的红兴隆管理局各农场地下水埋深资料和历年降水资料,采用替代数据法对数据进行非线性检验,确定数据序列的非线性特征。结果表明：红兴隆管理局各农场的时序数据的显著性指标均大于1.96,说明该零假设在95%的置信水平内被拒绝,地下水埋深时序数据和降水时序数据中都存在着非线性成分。 (2)运用排列熵方法对研究区逐月地下水埋深序列、降水序列进行了测度分析,并运用粒子群优化相空间重构参数m和τ,根据优化后的重构参数,确定地下水埋深序列、降水序列的复杂性测度值,并采用GIS技术绘制了红兴隆管理局各分区水埋深序列和降水序列复杂性空间分布图。结果显示：降水序列中,中部平均复杂度最大；北部地区居中；南部地区复杂性最弱,这与地下水埋深复杂性相呼应。 (3)采用熵值法度量了水资源系统综合复杂度,利用GIS的可视化功能,绘制了红兴隆管理局各分区水资源系统综合复杂性空间分布图。结果表明：红兴隆管理局中区水资源系统最为复杂,开发程度最高；北区复杂性最弱,是因为北区靠近两大河流,在一定程度上可以弥补水资源的开发利用；南区水资源系统复杂性适中,说明该区域已经受到各种不确定因子的影响,应对各种人为驱动因子加强遏制,使其朝着好的方向发展。 (4)以红兴隆管理局各分区复杂性特征研究成果、逐月地下水和降水为资料依据,实现经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益的协调统一,可持续发展为最终目标,建立红兴隆管理局2015年及2020年水资源优化配置模型,利用混合遗传算法对模型进行求解。结果显示：红兴隆管理局水资源有限,并没有完全满足农业用水,缺水量较大,供需矛盾突出；此外,红兴隆管理局规划水平年缺水状况得到改善,地下水资源得到了有效的保护,由此确定混合遗传算法是解决红兴隆管理局水资源优化配置的有效途径。并用粒子群算法和混合遗传算法相比较,在此基础上对红兴隆管理局农业水资源进行优化配置。结果表明：2015年和2020年在保障充分利用过境水的同时,对地下水、地表水的开采利用有了大幅下降,保障了地下水、地表水的水资源量。最后基于水资源优化配置结果,提出水资源保护规划。 (5)以2015年水资源优化配置后的数据资料,下属12个农场为评价单元,运用模糊综合评价的方法,得出红兴隆农业水资源可持续利用指标值。结果表明：红兴隆管理局12个农场总体上对水资源的可持续利用水平较低,今后在农业水资源方面使用很有前景,未来应加大农业水资源的投入,增强人们的节水意识,提高农业水资源利用率,改善生态环境。
[Abstract]:The Hong Xinglong Bureau is located in the hinterland of the Sanjiang Plain, and is one of the land reclamation areas of Heilongjiang Province. In recent years, with the increasing of economy and population, the acceleration of industry and urbanization and the unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources, the disturbance of the hydrological system is increasing, and the complexity of the agricultural hydrological elements is becoming more and more prominent. These factors are the key to the sustainable development of agriculture. The sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources is restricted by the sustainable utilization of water resources, so that the sustainable development of the whole society is affected. Only by adopting scientific and reasonable measures and methods can the regional agricultural economy be developed in a good direction. From the viewpoint of ensuring the sustainable development of agriculture, the paper analyzes the complexity of the water resources of the Hong Xinglong Bureau by means of the arrangement entropy, determines the spatial distribution of the comprehensive complexity, and realizes the optimal configuration of the water resources and the non-agricultural water resources on the basis of the measures, and finally carries out the effect evaluation. It provides a powerful reference for guiding the rational utilization of agricultural water resources, coordinating the social, economic and environmental development. (1) The data shall be non-linear tested by the alternative data method to determine the non-linearity of the data sequence according to the groundwater depth data and the precipitation data of each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, which is provided by the Water Bureau of the Hong Xinglong Bureau of Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the significance index of the time sequence data for each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is more than 1.96, which indicates that the zero hypothesis is rejected in the 95% confidence level, and the groundwater depth timing data and the precipitation time sequence data are non-linear. (2) Using the arrangement entropy method, the groundwater depth sequence and the precipitation sequence of the study area are measured and analyzed on a monthly basis, and the particle swarm optimization phase space reconstruction parameters m and m are used to determine the buried depth sequence of the groundwater and the complexity of the precipitation sequence according to the optimized reconstruction parameters. Measure the value, and use the GIS technology to draw the water depth sequence and the complexity space of the precipitation sequence of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. The results show that the average complexity of the central region is the largest in the precipitation sequence, the middle of the northern region is the middle, the complexity of the southern region is the weakest, which is related to the complexity of the buried depth of the groundwater (3) The comprehensive complexity of the water resources system is measured by the entropy method, and the comprehensive complexity of the water resources system of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is drawn by using the visualization function of GIS. The results show that the water resources system in the Central District of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is the most complicated and the highest development degree, and the lower complexity of the North District is because the North District is close to the two rivers and can make up for the development and utilization of the water resources to a certain extent, and the water resources system in the south area The complexity is moderate, indicating that the region has been affected by a variety of uncertain factors, which should be reinforced by a variety of artificial drivers to make it move towards good (4) According to the research results of the regional complexity of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, the data on the basis of the monthly ground water and the precipitation are the data bases, and the coordination and unification of the economic benefit, the social benefit and the ecological environment benefit can be realized, and the sustainable development is sustainable. The objective of development is to set up the water resource optimization configuration model of the Hong Xinglong Bureau in 2015 and 2020, and use the hybrid genetic algorithm The results show that the water resource of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is limited, and it does not completely meet the agricultural water, the water shortage is large, the supply and demand contradiction is outstanding; in addition, the water shortage condition in the planning level of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is improved, and the groundwater resources are Based on the effective protection, it is determined that the hybrid genetic algorithm is the solution to the water resource optimization of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. Based on the comparison of the particle swarm optimization and the hybrid genetic algorithm, the agricultural water resources of the Hong Xinglong Administration The results show that the exploitation and utilization of ground water and surface water are greatly reduced by 2015 and 2020, and the ground water and ground water are guaranteed. The water resources of the water resources. At last, based on the results of the optimization of water resources, the paper puts forward Water resource protection planning. (5) Based on the data of the water resource optimization configuration in 2015, the 12 farms under the subordinate are the evaluation unit, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to obtain the water resources of the Hong Xinglong agriculture. The results show that the sustainable utilization of water resources in the 12 farms of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is relatively low, and it is very promising to use the water resources in the future. The future should increase the investment of the agricultural water resources and enhance the water-saving awareness of the people. high agricultural water resource
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.213

【参考文献】