基于混合蛙跳与投影寻踪模型的水资源系统脆弱性评价

发布时间：2019-06-18 23:51

【摘要】：研究水资源系统脆弱性有助于水资源可持续利用的实现,结合驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应(DPSIR)框架构建了水资源系统脆弱性评价指标体系,利用混合蛙跳算法和投影寻踪方法建立了基于混合蛙跳和投影寻踪的水资源系统脆弱性评价模型,以山东省滕州市为研究区,分别从驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应5个方面及系统整体进行了水资源系统脆弱性评价,并以模型计算的投影值作为衡量系统脆弱程度的依据。结果表明,该区2008年水资源系统指标体系各方面与整体均处于脆弱性中等范围,其中水资源供需矛盾不断加剧及水资源开发利用条件薄弱导致影响、状态两方面脆弱性程度较高,依靠科技进步措施使得响应类指标对脆弱性影响程度较低,与实际情况相符,可见该模型评价结果可行、有效。
[Abstract]:The study of vulnerability of water resources system is helpful to the realization of sustainable utilization of water resources. Combined with the framework of driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR), the vulnerability evaluation index system of water resources system is constructed, and the vulnerability assessment model of water resources system based on mixed frog jump and projection pursuit is established by using mixed frog jump algorithm and projection pursuit method. Tengzhou City, Shandong Province, is taken as the study area. The vulnerability of water resources system is evaluated from five aspects of driving force, pressure, state, influence and response, and the projection value calculated by the model is used as the basis to measure the vulnerability of the system. The results show that the index system of water resources system in 2008 is in the middle range of vulnerability, in which the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the weak conditions of water resources development and utilization lead to the influence, and the vulnerability of the two aspects is higher. Relying on the measures of scientific and technological progress, the impact of response indicators on vulnerability is low, which is consistent with the actual situation. It can be seen that the evaluation results of the model are feasible and effective.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;
【分类号】：TV213.4

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