气候变化条件下中国松花江流域气候趋势与干旱行为时空特征分析
发布时间：2022-02-20 05:20
降水、温度和农业气象干旱时空变化分析在区域水资源可持续管理方面发挥重要作用。在本研究中,运用熵理论,气候趋势统计,干旱指数和预测等方法来分析时空气象变化与干旱异常行为,目的是为特定地区的研究人员和决策者提供全面的参考。该研究以中国黑龙江省松花江流域11个气象站为研究对象。第一,通过熵理论分析了降水的时空变化规律。利用样本熵测度各气象站月度,季度,年度,十年的雨天数量和降水数据。利用强度熵计算数据的个体差异,利用分配熵来计算年代际变化。样本紊乱指数的结果表明,2月份（平均1.09,最大1.26和最小0.80）和7月份（平均1.10,最大1.20和最小0.98）的降水贡献明显更高。同样地,十年降雨变异性的平均分配紊乱指数比1964-1973和1973-2003年分别增长了 0.023和0.053。第二,通过使用Spearmen’s Rho和Mann-Kendall趋势测试,以5%的检验水准研究其历史降水和温度数据系列的长期气候趋势（月/季节和年度）。冬季（11月和12月）期间,月降水量分析呈现显著的（p<0.05）增长趋势。同样地,流域的季节和全年气温的结果显示,在过去49年（196...
【文章来源】：东北农业大学黑龙江省211工程院校
【文章页数】：137 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and significance of climatic change and drought Research
1.1.1 Background and significance of climatic change research
1.1.2 Background and significance of drought research
1.2 Purpose and Significance of research
1.3 Drought
1.3.1 Drought types
1.3.2 Drought mitigation
1.3.3 Drought characteristics
1.4 Climate change
1.4.1 Climate
1.4.2 Climate change impact on water resources and agriculture production
1.5 Summarization of domestic and foreign research
1.5.1 Climatic variables trends
1.5.2 Agro-meteorological drought scenario
1.5.3 Agro-meteorological drought indices
1.5.4 Future drought projection
1.6 Research objectives and innovative points
1.6.1 Research objectives
1.6.2 Innovative points of research
Framework of this Study
2 Natural conditions and methodology
2.1 Natural geographical conditions and River system
2.2 Natural fanning conditions in the Songhua River basin
2.2.1 Farmland changes in the River Basin
2.3 Research Area and Datasets
2.4 Mathematical approaches
2.4.1 Entropy theories
2.4.2 Various drought indices approach for drought prediction
2.4.3 Statistical theories
3 Precipitation variability assessment using entropy theories
3.1 Methods
3.1.1 Entropy as extent of temporal precipitation apportionment
3.1.2 Sample Entropy
3.1.3 Intensity Entropy
3.1.4 Apportionment Entropy
3.1.5 Decadal Apportionment Entropy
3.2 Results and Discussion
3.2.1 Variability of Precipitation (Annual, Seasonal & Monthly Basis)
3.2.2 Precipitation Variability on Spatial and Temporal Scale
3.2.3 Rainy Days Variability
3.2.4 Decadal Variability
3.3 Summary
4 Assessment of historical climatic trends by using the precipitation and temperature dataseries in the Songhua River basin of China
4.1 Methods
4.1.1 Mann-Kendall trend test
4.1.2 Spearman's Rho test
4.1.3 Sen's Slope Estimator
4.2 Result and Analysis
4.2.1 Statistical analysis of annual precipitation and temperature
4.2.2 Monthly analysis of precipitation and temperature
4.2.3 Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation
4.2.4 Long term persistence of seasonal precipitation and temperature data series
4.2.5 Long term pattern of annual precipitation and temperature data series
4.3 Summary
5 Detecting the persistence of historical spatiotemporal variations of agro meteorologicaldrying trends by using numerous drought indices
5.1 Methods
5.1.1 Drought Identifications
5.1.2 Drought events statistics
5.1.3 Standardized Precipitation Index
5.1.4 Reconnaissance Drought Index
5.1.5 Standardized Precipitation Evaporative index
5.1.6 Effective Drought Index
5.2 Result and Analysis
5.2.1 Meteorological drought analysis
5.2.2 Agro-meteorological drought analysis
5.3 Summary
6 Projected changes of future extreme drought events under various drought indices by usingCMIP3 approach
6.1 Future Climate Scenarios
6.2 Methodology
6.3 Results and Analysis
6.3.1 Projected changes in meteorological variables
6.3.2 3 & 6 Month drought Scenario
6.3.3 9 & 12 Month drought Scenario
6.3.4 SPI, RDI and EDI indices drought comparison scenario
6.3.5 Drought Frequency Analysis
6.4 Summary
7 Projected changes of future drought events under numerous drought indices by usingCMIP5 approach
7.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5) - High emission
7.2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) -Intermediate emission
7.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5) - Low emission
7.4 Methodology
7.4.1 Generating future climatic data
7.4.2 Drought Identification Indices
7.5 Results and Discussion
7.5.1 RCP2.6
7.5.2 RCP4.5
7.5.3 RCP8.5
7.6 Summary
8 Conclusion
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of PhD education
本文编号：3634397
【文章来源】：东北农业大学黑龙江省211工程院校
【文章页数】：137 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and significance of climatic change and drought Research
1.1.1 Background and significance of climatic change research
1.1.2 Background and significance of drought research
1.2 Purpose and Significance of research
1.3 Drought
1.3.1 Drought types
1.3.2 Drought mitigation
1.3.3 Drought characteristics
1.4 Climate change
1.4.1 Climate
1.4.2 Climate change impact on water resources and agriculture production
1.5 Summarization of domestic and foreign research
1.5.1 Climatic variables trends
1.5.2 Agro-meteorological drought scenario
1.5.3 Agro-meteorological drought indices
1.5.4 Future drought projection
1.6 Research objectives and innovative points
1.6.1 Research objectives
1.6.2 Innovative points of research
Framework of this Study
2 Natural conditions and methodology
2.1 Natural geographical conditions and River system
2.2 Natural fanning conditions in the Songhua River basin
2.2.1 Farmland changes in the River Basin
2.3 Research Area and Datasets
2.4 Mathematical approaches
2.4.1 Entropy theories
2.4.2 Various drought indices approach for drought prediction
2.4.3 Statistical theories
3 Precipitation variability assessment using entropy theories
3.1 Methods
3.1.1 Entropy as extent of temporal precipitation apportionment
3.1.2 Sample Entropy
3.1.3 Intensity Entropy
3.1.4 Apportionment Entropy
3.1.5 Decadal Apportionment Entropy
3.2 Results and Discussion
3.2.1 Variability of Precipitation (Annual, Seasonal & Monthly Basis)
3.2.2 Precipitation Variability on Spatial and Temporal Scale
3.2.3 Rainy Days Variability
3.2.4 Decadal Variability
3.3 Summary
4 Assessment of historical climatic trends by using the precipitation and temperature dataseries in the Songhua River basin of China
4.1 Methods
4.1.1 Mann-Kendall trend test
4.1.2 Spearman's Rho test
4.1.3 Sen's Slope Estimator
4.2 Result and Analysis
4.2.1 Statistical analysis of annual precipitation and temperature
4.2.2 Monthly analysis of precipitation and temperature
4.2.3 Annual and seasonal analysis of temperature and precipitation
4.2.4 Long term persistence of seasonal precipitation and temperature data series
4.2.5 Long term pattern of annual precipitation and temperature data series
4.3 Summary
5 Detecting the persistence of historical spatiotemporal variations of agro meteorologicaldrying trends by using numerous drought indices
5.1 Methods
5.1.1 Drought Identifications
5.1.2 Drought events statistics
5.1.3 Standardized Precipitation Index
5.1.4 Reconnaissance Drought Index
5.1.5 Standardized Precipitation Evaporative index
5.1.6 Effective Drought Index
5.2 Result and Analysis
5.2.1 Meteorological drought analysis
5.2.2 Agro-meteorological drought analysis
5.3 Summary
6 Projected changes of future extreme drought events under various drought indices by usingCMIP3 approach
6.1 Future Climate Scenarios
6.2 Methodology
6.3 Results and Analysis
6.3.1 Projected changes in meteorological variables
6.3.2 3 & 6 Month drought Scenario
6.3.3 9 & 12 Month drought Scenario
6.3.4 SPI, RDI and EDI indices drought comparison scenario
6.3.5 Drought Frequency Analysis
6.4 Summary
7 Projected changes of future drought events under numerous drought indices by usingCMIP5 approach
7.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5) - High emission
7.2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) -Intermediate emission
7.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.5) - Low emission
7.4 Methodology
7.4.1 Generating future climatic data
7.4.2 Drought Identification Indices
7.5 Results and Discussion
7.5.1 RCP2.6
7.5.2 RCP4.5
7.5.3 RCP8.5
7.6 Summary
8 Conclusion
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of PhD education
本文编号：3634397
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