气候变化对越南西北部农户生计的脆弱性和适应的影响研究

发布时间：2024-07-06 13:51

　　气候变化正在影响大部分世界的地区。研究表明,气候变化对山区的自然和经济社会系统有显著影响。在农民的生计领域,气候变化的影响主要表现在对生计的资源(水源、土地、生态系统、基础设施、健康等等)和生计的类型(如农业、林业、渔业、畜牧业、服务业、工业等等)等方面的影响。越南是受气候变化影响最大的国家之一。越南的大部分少数民族生活在北方山区,生计不佳,经济条件差,交通不方便。特别是极端天气事件成为对农民生计的严重威胁。本研究旨在考察气候变化对越南西北地区农户的生活脆弱性及对农户净收入的经济影响。本研究根据这些变化,确定了农民对气候变化的看法及其农业实践中采取的适应措施。为了获取影响农民对气候变化意识及其适应性选择的因素,通过家庭调查,农民讲习班,FDG,VHLSS(GSO2012),水文气象预报数据等收集了主要和次要数据,并选取越南西北山区三个典型的农业和自然资源依赖型公社,测试生活脆弱性指数(LVI),LVI-IPCC和生计效应指数(LEI);利用Ricardian的方法进行了分析越南西北地区气候变化对农业的影响;运用Logit模型探索农民对气候变化的意识,运用binary logistics...

【文章页数】：133 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
    1.1. Research background
    1.2. Research Objectives
    1.3. Key Questions
    1.4 Thesis Structure
CHAPTER 2: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
    2.1. Definition and Concepts of Climate change and livelihood
    2.2. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
    2.3. Approaches to climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment
    2.4 Livelihood Vulnerability to climate change
    2.5. Economic impact of climate change assessment
        2.5.1 Economy-wide models
        2.5.2. Partial equilibrium models
    2.6 Perception to climate change
    2.7. Coping and adaptation to climate change
CHAPTER 3: STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH DESIGN
    3.1. Description of the Study area
        3.1.1. Location of the study area
        3.1.2. Biophysical conditions
        3.1.3. Socio-economic characteristic
        3.1.4. Agricultural produce
    3.2. An overview of climate change in Northwestern Vietnam
    3.3. Research Design
CHAPTER 4. LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE INNORTHWESTERN VIETNAM
    4.1. Introduction
    4.2. Methodology
        4.2.1 Sampling and data collection
        4.2.2. Data analysis
        4.2.4. Calculating the LEI
    4.3. Results
    4.4. Discussion
CHAPTER 5: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER’SCROP PRODUCTION IN NORTHWEST VIETNAM: A RICARDIAN APPROACH
    5.1. Introduction
    5.2. Methodology
    5.3. Data collection
    5.4. Results
        5.4.1. Regression estimates
        5.4.2. Marginal Impacts of Climate on Agricultural Revenue and Elasticity
        5.4.3. Forecasts of Climate Impacts on Agriculture in Northwest Vietnam
    5.5. Discussion
CHAPTER 6: FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONLIVELIHOODS IN THE NORTHWEST REGION OF VIETNAM
    6.1. Introduction
    6.2. Conceptual framework and methodology
        6.2.1. Model specification
        6.2.2. Marginal effects and partial elasticities
        6.2.3. Explanatory variables
        6.2.4 Sampling and data collection
    6.3. Results and discussions
        6.3.1. Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Changes
        6.3.2. Farmers’ Adaptation Analysis
CHAPTER 7: SUMMARY AND SOME POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
    7.1. Summary of research
        7.1.1. Vulnerability of farm household to climate change
        7.1.2. The economic impact of climate change on household revenue
        7.1.3. Farmers perception and adaptation to climate change
    7.2. Policy implications, limitations and future research
        7.2.1. Policy implications
        7.2.2. Thesis limitations and future research
APPENDIX A. Questionnaire for Household Survey (English version)
APPENDIX B: Marginal effect and elasticity calculations
APPENDIX C: Supplement Table
REFERENCES
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