煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学

发布时间：2017-12-28 08:04

本文关键词：煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的政策模拟研究——基于系统动力学　出处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,煤炭和原油价格的持续下滑对煤炭城市的经济发展带来了前所未有的挑战。以鄂尔多斯市为例,构建煤炭城市应对能源价格冲击的系统动力学模型,并在不同能源价格波动情景和政策情景下,对煤炭产业、煤化工产业、下游工业产业以及整个工业的产值和利润总额进行模拟仿真。结果表明:尽管能源价格下跌对地区非资源型产业的发展具有一定的促进作用,但就总体而言,会对鄂尔多斯的经济发展造成显著的负面影响。不同的政策在能源价格冲击背景下的调控效果也不尽相同,其中加大科研投入和发展替代产业政策对区域工业总产值和总利润的提升效果最为明显;降低增值税政策可以在短期内快速提高工业盈利水平,但是其有效性却呈显著的逐年递减趋势;加大限产力度可以在不损失区域经济总量的情况下,有效地提高其利润总额;而加大金融投入在提高区域工业总产值的同时,会削弱其获利能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous decline in the price of coal and crude oil has brought unprecedented challenges to the economic development of coal cities. In Ordos city as an example, the construction of system dynamics model to deal with energy price shocks in coal city, and different energy price scenarios and policy scenarios to simulate the total output and profits of coal industry, coal chemical industry, downstream industries as well as the entire industry. The results show that although energy price decline has a certain role in promoting the development of non resource industries, it will have a significant negative impact on the economic development of Ordos. Control effect of different policies in the background of energy price shocks are not the same, which increased investment in research and development of alternative industrial policy on regional industrial output and total profit increase most obvious effect; reduce the value-added tax policy can improve the industrial profit level in the short term, but its effectiveness is decreasing year by year a significant increase in the trend; efforts to limit production without loss of the total regional economic situation, effectively improve the total profit; and increase financial investment in improving the regional industrial output at the same time, will weaken its profitability.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573252) 国家软科学研究计划项目资助(2014GXQ4D182)
【分类号】：F426.21
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出煤炭城市是因煤炭资源的开采而兴起或发展壮大,且煤炭资源性产业在工业中占有较大份额的城市[1-2]。煤炭城市以资源开采、加工为主体相对单一的产业结构特征,决定了其对能源价格的变化格外敏感[3-4]。近年来,由于受金融危机、宏观经济调整等因素的影响,煤炭价格

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