“绿电”替代“火电”的潜力评估与进程分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 08:39

  本文关键词：“绿电”替代“火电”的潜力评估与进程分析　出处：《可再生能源》2016年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 绿电 创新扩散 替代规模 替代进程

【摘要】：文章运用创新扩散模型,对我国"绿电"与"火电"未来各时点发电量进行了预测评估,并在此基础上对替代规模与替代进程进行了耦合分析。结果表明:2020~2050年,我国电力结构仍将以"火电"为主,"绿电"发电量不断增加,占比上呈"M"型;"绿电"的发展主要依赖于水电与核电,水电与核电的开发潜力较大,未来5 a内将得到大力开发;目前风电产业已处于产业化发展阶段,风电市场基本趋于成熟,风力发电量也大体保持稳定。
[Abstract]:Based on the innovation diffusion model, this paper forecasts and evaluates the future power generation of "green power" and "thermal power" in China. On this basis, the coupling analysis of substitution scale and process is carried out. The results show that the power structure of China will still be dominated by thermal power from 20 to 2050, and the power generation of "green electricity" will continue to increase. The proportion is "M" type; The development of "green electricity" mainly depends on hydropower and nuclear power, the development potential of hydropower and nuclear power is great, and will be vigorously developed in the next five years. At present, wind power industry has been in the stage of industrial development, wind power market is basically mature, wind power generation is generally stable.
【作者单位】： 中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71373261)
【分类号】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 0引言电力是我国最重要的二次能源,其清洁化发展程度对实现经济、能源和环境协调发展意义重大。2014年,我国一次能源消费量为42.6亿t标煤,其中,煤炭占66.0%,石油占17.1%,天然气占5.7%,来自于核电、水电、风电以及太阳能发电的“绿电”占11.2%。中国经济发展进入了转型升级的关，

本文编号：1359026