产业结构调整对电力需求的影响及其模型构建

发布时间：2018-01-08 13:30

本文关键词：产业结构调整对电力需求的影响及其模型构建　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力工业是国民经济的基础产业,电力的生产及充足供给是经济发展、社会进步以及人民生活水平提高的必要条件。改革开放以来,中国的经济增长方式发生转变,产业结构不断调整,导致电力供需关系随之变化。随着可持续发展战略的实施以及经济新常态的出现,产业结构调整必将对电力需求造成重要影响。因此,研究产业结构调整对电力需求的影响对一个地区社会经济的发展以及电网规划都具有实际意义。本文将定性分析与定量分析相结合,分别从三次产业、八大行业以及高耗能行业三个层面层层递进地分析产业结构调整对各行业电力需求的影响。首先,分析产业结构调整对三次产业电力需求及其结构的影响,运用灰色关联理论筛选对电力需求影响较大的指标,并在此基础上运用协整理论构建产业结构调整和电力需求的关系模型；然后,根据国家统计局对国民经济活动的划分将三次产业细分为八大行业,分析产业结构调整对八大行业的电力需求及结构的影响,并运用对数平均迪式指数分解法(Log-Mean Divisia Index Method, LMDI)分析影响八大行业电力需求及其电力强度变化的规模、结构和效率等因素,找出关键影响因素；最后,进一步研究八大行业中的支柱产业——工业,根据国家统计局对工业内部高耗能行业的划分,分析产业结构调整对高耗能行业的电力需求及结构的影响,运用LMDI分解法找出对高耗能行业整体的电力需求及其电力强度变化影响较大的关键因素,并运用Panel Data面板数据理论分析产业结构调整对各高耗能行业电力需求的影响。本文以山西省改革开放以来的经济增长和电力需求相关数据为基础进行实证研究,构建了山西省产业结构调整、经济增长与电力需求的协整关系模型,证明了产业结构调整对电力需求的影响；对山西省八大行业电力需求及电力强度的因素分解结果显示,工业是影响八大行业电力需求和电力强度的关键行业；进一步对工业内部的高耗能行业电力需求和电力强度进行因素分解,结果显示以有色金属冶炼及压延加工业为代表的高耗能行业是影响整体电力消费和电力强度的关键行业,因素分解的结果证实了山西省产业结构调整对各行业的电力需求及结构组成有明显的影响；构建了山西省七大高耗能行业经济增长、电力利用效率与电力需求关系的面板数据模型,结果显示对以有色金属冶炼及压延加工业为代表的电力强度仍然较高的行业进行结构调整,降低其电力强度,能够有效降低电力需求,是山西省未来产业结构调整的重点方向。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is the basic industry of the national economy. The production and adequate supply of electric power is a necessary condition for economic development, social progress and the improvement of people's living standard. With the implementation of the sustainable development strategy and the emergence of a new normal economy, China's economic growth mode has changed and the industrial structure has been constantly adjusted, resulting in a change in the power supply and demand relationship along with the implementation of the sustainable development strategy. The adjustment of industrial structure will have an important impact on the power demand. It is of practical significance to study the influence of industrial structure adjustment on power demand for the development of social economy and power network planning in a region. This paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, respectively from three industries. Eight industries and three levels of high energy consumption industry layer by layer analysis of the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand of each industry. First, the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the third industrial electricity demand and its structure. The grey relational theory is used to screen the indexes which have a great influence on the power demand, and on this basis, the relationship model between the industrial structure adjustment and the power demand is constructed by using the co-arrangement theory. Then, according to the division of national economic activities of the National Bureau of Statistics, the three industries are divided into eight industries, and the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the electricity demand and structure of the eight industries is analyzed. Log-Mean Divisia Index Method was used in this paper. LMDI) analyzes the scale, structure and efficiency of power demand and power intensity change in eight industries, and finds out the key factors. Finally, the paper further studies the pillar industry of the eight major industries-industry, according to the division of high-energy industries within the industry by the National Bureau of Statistics, and analyzes the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand and structure of high-energy consuming industries. The LMDI decomposition method is used to find out the key factors that have a great influence on the overall power demand and the change of the power intensity of the high energy consuming industry. And use Panel. Data panel data theory analyzes the impact of industrial structure adjustment on the power demand of high energy-consuming industries. This paper based on the economic growth and power demand related data of Shanxi Province since the reform and opening to the outside world. The cointegration model of industrial structure adjustment, economic growth and power demand in Shanxi Province is constructed, which proves the influence of industrial structure adjustment on power demand. The results of factor decomposition of power demand and power intensity in eight major industries in Shanxi Province show that industry is the key industry affecting power demand and power intensity in eight major industries. Further factor decomposition of power demand and power intensity of high energy consuming industry is carried out. The results show that the high energy consumption industry, represented by non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry, is the key industry affecting the overall power consumption and power intensity. The result of factor decomposition proves that the adjustment of industrial structure in Shanxi Province has obvious influence on the power demand and structure composition of each industry. The panel data model of economic growth, power utilization efficiency and power demand of seven major energy-consuming industries in Shanxi Province is constructed. The results show that the structure adjustment and the reduction of electric power intensity can effectively reduce the power demand in industries represented by non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry. Shanxi Province in the future industrial structure adjustment of the key direction.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.61;F121.3

【参考文献】