中国建筑业碳排放与生产率相关性分析研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 06:19

本文关键词：中国建筑业碳排放与生产率相关性分析研究　出处：《浙江大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：面对当前全球气候变暖的背景,世界各国均提出了自己的节能减排目标。作为能源消耗最大的国家之一,当前我国面临着节能减排、产业结构升级等诸多压力,特别是在建筑业更是如此。目前我国建筑业节能减排的多项措施大多也是基于提高生产率来实现的,而当前我国建筑业生产率的提高对碳排放能否起到抑制作用依然存在争议。因此本文致力于分析建筑业生产率对于碳排放的影响机制,基于投入产出法研究建筑业碳排放对关联产业的带动作用,并通过库兹涅兹EKC(Environmental Kuznets curve)模型与脱钩分析分别从长期到短期研究我国建筑业生产率对碳排放的影响,进而以全国大陆31个省、直辖市的数据为例,进行面板数据分析。研究结果有助于理清建筑业碳排放机理,并提出针对性政策建议。本文的主要工作与结论有：(1)基于投入产出法,得到我国建筑业与其关联产业的碳排放总量。数据显示我国建筑业碳排放逐年递增,从1991年的432.3万吨增长到2012年的753.4万吨。然后其中建筑业的直接排放量(包括材料运输与施工过程)只占其中的10%至15%。(2)通过库兹涅兹模型分析出我国建筑业发展与碳量之间呈现倒“N型”的三次曲线关系,针对于我国现阶段的建筑业的发展情况,建筑业生产率提高与碳排放呈正相关关系。(3)通过Tapio脱钩分析模型得到我国生产率对碳排放的带动效应随着新建建筑面积快速增长正逐年增大。(4)通过面板数据分析,主要选取建筑业生产率、建筑业能源强度效应、建筑业能源结构效应、研发强度、外商资本比、资本密集度来描述其对我国建筑业碳排放影响,得到以下结论：我国各省建筑业生产率与碳排放呈正向关系；中西部省市相对于东部,其正向影响系数较高；同时,我国东、中、西各部分影响碳排放的因素以及各因素的影响程度也存在很大不同；其中各省市的能源强度与结构效应对碳排放影响均较大,资本密集度对中西部的减排效果相对明显,同时外商资本比与研发强度对于各区域建筑业碳排放作用均不明显。根据模型结果,各个省市需要因地制宜制定相应政策以达到建筑业节能减排的目标：东部各省市应着力改善建筑业的能源使用效率与能源结构,中西部省市应增加资本投入与合理化改善建筑业生产模式,以当地建筑业发展模式与现状为基础,引导实现我国建筑业的绿色可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Facing the background of global warming, countries all over the world have put forward their own energy saving and emission reduction targets. As one of the largest energy consuming countries, China is currently facing many pressures, such as energy saving and emission reduction, industrial structure upgrading and so on. Especially in the construction industry. At present, many measures of energy saving and emission reduction in China's construction industry are also based on increasing productivity. However, whether the improvement of construction industry productivity can restrain carbon emissions is still controversial. Therefore, this paper is devoted to analyze the mechanism of the impact of construction industry productivity on carbon emissions. Based on the input-output method, this paper studies the driving effect of carbon emissions from construction industry on related industries. And through EKC(Environmental Kuznets curvein Kuznets. The model and decoupling analysis are used to study the impact of construction productivity on carbon emissions in China from the long term to the short term. Then taking the data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China as an example, the panel data analysis is carried out. The results are helpful to clarify the mechanism of carbon emissions in construction industry. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) based on the input-output method. The total carbon emissions of construction industry and its related industries in China are obtained. The data show that the carbon emissions of construction industry in China are increasing year by year. From four million three hundred and twenty-three thousand tons in 1991 to seven million five hundred and thirty-four thousand tons in 2012. Then direct emissions from construction (including material transportation and construction process). Through Kuznets model, the relationship between the development of China's construction industry and the amount of carbon is found to be the inverted "N-shaped" cubic curve. Aiming at the development of the construction industry in our country at the present stage. Through the Tapio decoupling analysis model, we can get the driving effect of productivity on carbon emissions in China with the rapid growth of the newly built building area. (3) with the rapid growth of new building area, the driving effect of China's productivity on carbon emissions is increasing year by year. 4) Panel data analysis. Mainly select the construction industry productivity, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, R & D intensity, foreign capital ratio, capital intensity to describe its impact on China's construction industry carbon emissions. The conclusions are as follows: the productivity of construction industry is positively related to carbon emission in each province of China; The positive influence coefficient of central and western provinces is higher than that of eastern provinces. At the same time, the factors affecting carbon emissions in the east, middle and west parts of China and the influence degree of each factor are also very different. Among them, the energy intensity and structure effect of provinces and cities have a great impact on carbon emissions, and the capital intensity has a relatively obvious effect on emission reduction in the central and western regions. At the same time, the ratio of foreign capital and the intensity of R & D have no obvious effect on the carbon emissions of construction industry in various regions. According to the results of the model. Each province and city should make corresponding policies according to local conditions to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction in the construction industry: the eastern provinces and cities should focus on improving the energy efficiency and energy structure of the construction industry. The central and western provinces and cities should increase capital investment and rationalize the construction industry production model and guide the realization of the green sustainable development of China's construction industry on the basis of the local construction industry development model and current situation.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.92

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