新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整及其大气环境效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 19:28

本文关键词：新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整及其大气环境效应研究　出处：《自然资源学报》2016年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：论文利用动态面板的系统GMM估计方法、LMDI分解模型、历史值外推模拟及线性规划约束模型等探究了新常态下山东省环境规制对工业结构调整的影响及其大气环境效应,得到以下结论:1)2001—2013年,山东省工业比重呈现先上升后下降的趋势,污染密集型行业比重整体呈现先下降后上升的趋势,二者的环境规制强度基本呈上升趋势;2)环境规制对山东省工业比重、污染密集型行业比重和高新技术产业比重的影响系数分别为-0.043、-0.451和0.523,说明山东省环境规制的实施对工业结构的优化调整具有正向作用;3)随着山东省环境规制强度的增加,工业结构效应和技术效率效应抑制了大气污染物排放量的增加,而污染密集型行业结构效应虽然是工业结构减排的主要原因,但其减排绝对量较小;4)对比宽松、适度、严格3种环境规制情景下的预测结果,新常态下山东省工业结构的调整力度和大气污染物减排潜力依次增大。值得指出的是,适度环境规制下山东省工业结构调整更有利于经济社会的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the system GMM estimation method based on dynamic panel is used to decompose the LMDI model. Historical value extrapolation simulation and linear programming constraint model explore the impact of environmental regulation on industrial structure adjustment and atmospheric environmental effects in Shandong Province under the new normal conditions. The following conclusions are obtained: 1: 1 (2001-2013). In Shandong Province, the proportion of industry increased first and then decreased, the proportion of pollution-intensive industries as a whole decreased first and then increased, and the environmental regulation intensity of both showed an upward trend. 2) the influence coefficients of environmental regulation on industrial proportion, pollution-intensive industry proportion and high-tech industry proportion of Shandong Province are -0.043 ~ (-0.451) and 0.523 respectively. It shows that the implementation of environmental regulation in Shandong Province has a positive effect on the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. 3) with the increase of environmental regulation intensity in Shandong Province, industrial structure effect and technical efficiency effect restrain the increase of air pollutant emission. Although the structural effect of pollution-intensive industries is the main reason for the emission reduction of industrial structure, the absolute amount of emission reduction is relatively small. 4) comparing the forecast results of three kinds of environmental regulation scenarios: loose, moderate and strict, the adjustment of industrial structure and the emission reduction potential of atmospheric pollutants in Shandong Province increase in turn under the new normal. It is worth pointing out that. The adjustment of industrial structure in Shandong Province is more beneficial to the sustainable development of economy and society under moderate environmental regulation.
【作者单位】：临沂大学商学院;山东师范大学地理与环境学院;
【分类号】：X322
【正文快照】： 随着国际经济危机的爆发,我国产能过剩、产业集中度低以及产业技术结构不合理等结构性问题日益突出,经济发展开始进入以从高速增长转为中高速增长、经济结构不断优化升级以及从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动等为特点的新常态,产业结构调整优化已然成为当前经济发展的主要任

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