中国石油脆弱性的评价及政策建议

发布时间：2018-01-18 03:22

本文关键词：中国石油脆弱性的评价及政策建议　出处：《合肥工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自石油取代煤炭成为主要能源以来,世界石油市场在战争、冲突、危机、垄断、投机和自然灾害等突发事件的干扰下,一直处于动荡的平衡状态,国际石油市场的每一次动荡对于各石油和能源进口国来说,都是一场经济甚至国家安全的灾难。因此,研究石油脆弱性问题显得尤为重要。本文在大量查阅文献的基础上,对文献作出全面的梳理,然后根据科学性原则、系统性原则、明确性原则、可比性原则、动态性原则、间接性原则六大指标构建原则,筛选出石油储采比、能源多样化指数、石油进口的多元化指数、石油对外依存度、石油价格波动率、石油占一次能源比重、石油消费增长速度、石油消费强度、碳排放强度以及单位能源消费的碳排放指数10个指标,并将其归为资源因素、进口因素、市场因素、环境因素四大类,构成石油脆弱性评价指标体系。其次,运用熵权法对美国、日本、德国、中国和印度的石油脆弱性进行评价和比较,结果表明：中国和印度的石油脆弱性高于美国、日本、德国的石油脆弱性；典型发达国家自2004年后,除少数年份出现波动外,石油脆弱性总体呈下降趋势；石油储采比、石油对外依存度、石油进口多元化指数和石油消费强度是决定中国石油脆弱性程度的主要因素。最后,本文比较了国际的石油脆弱性政策,结果表明我国在石油进口政策、石油储备政策方面均不完善,从而提出：合理实现石油进口来源多元化；加快石油战略储备体系建设：加强对油气资源的开发。本文一方面较为新颖的运用熵权法进行石油脆弱性的评价,使得结果更科学,更合理。另一方面,本文提出的政策建议可以为政策制定者提供一定的参考依据。
[Abstract]:Since oil replaced coal as the main energy, the world oil market has been in a turbulent balance under the disturbance of war, conflict, crisis, monopoly, speculation and natural disasters. Every turbulence in the international oil market is an economic and even national security disaster for oil and energy importing countries. It is particularly important to study the problem of oil vulnerability. Based on a large number of references, this paper makes a comprehensive combing of the literature, and then according to the principles of science, systematization, clarity and comparability. Dynamic principle, indirect principle, six index construction principles, the oil reservoir production ratio, energy diversification index, diversification index of oil imports, oil dependence on external, oil price volatility. Oil accounts for the proportion of primary energy, oil consumption growth rate, oil consumption intensity, carbon emission intensity and carbon emission index per unit of energy consumption 10 indicators, and classified them as resource factors, import factors. Market factors, environmental factors constitute the oil vulnerability assessment index system. Secondly, the use of entropy method to evaluate and compare the oil vulnerability of the United States, Japan, Germany, China and India. The results show that the oil vulnerability of China and India is higher than that of the United States, Japan and Germany. Since 2004, the oil vulnerability of the typical developed countries has declined except for a few years. The ratio of oil storage to production, the degree of dependence on foreign oil, the index of oil import diversification and the intensity of oil consumption are the main factors that determine the vulnerability of China's oil. Finally, this paper compares the international oil vulnerability policies. The results show that China's oil import policy and oil reserve policy are not perfect. Accelerate the construction of petroleum strategic reserve system: strengthen the development of oil and gas resources. On the one hand, this paper uses entropy weight method to evaluate the vulnerability of oil, making the results more scientific and reasonable. On the other hand. The policy recommendations in this paper can provide some references for policy makers.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22

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